Showing posts with label Argentine Primera División. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Argentine Primera División. Show all posts

Preview Fecha 6 Apertura 2011 Argentina

Preview and predictions for the 6th round of games of the Argentine Apertura 2011 tournament.

Preview

Unfortunately, due to lack of time I have not had the opportunity to make predictions for the first five rounds of the Apertura tournament. 


My best points tally from Clausura 2011 was 16 points (5 correct scorelines & another correct outcome) and my worst was just 2 points, hopefully I can beat both of those records during Apertura 2011.


In the first game on Friday evening league leaders Atlético Rafaela host Newell's Old Boys. The two sides have not met in a competitive game for many years so the head-to-head stats are pretty much useless. Newell's have looked much better than they did as they struggled to a 19th place in the Clausura however I fancy the home side to continue  the top of the table feel good factor for at least one more round with a win in this game.

The second game features two sides with ambitions to finish in the top five, San Lorenzo suffered an embarrassing 0-1 home defeat to Belgrano last weekend and they have not scored more than a single goal in an away game against Colón since 1995.

In the early kick off on Saturday Godoy Cruz will attempt to bag their third consecutive league win and their fifth game without defeat in all competitions when they face All Boys. The only time this fixture has been played before in the top flight was a 1-0 win for Godoy Cruz at the back end of Clausura 2011, only a few months ago.

Estudiantes have only won two of their previous 22 games, and one of them was their midweek win against Arsenal which was not enough to prevent them from being eliminated from Copa Sudamericana, it did however end their astonishing run of 9 home games without a win. Tigre will be tough opponents, they are fighting for Primera Division survival and have started the season pretty well.

Saturday's last game features two of the most entertaining sides from Clausura 2011. Racing Club have started the Apertura in fine form but their visitors Olimpo have struggled after losing many of their key players from last season. Racing have a surprisingly poor home record against Olimpo having only won two of the previous six encounters. the most recent encounter between the sides was a thoroughly enjoyable 4-3 win for Racing, hopefully Saturday's encounter will be of similar entertainment value.

Predictions

As the results come in I will fill in the actual scores and colour code the predicted scores, green for exact scoreline , yellow for correct result and red for completely wrong. Each green score gets three points, each yellow score gets one point and red scores get nothing. If you fancy playing along fill out your predictions in the comments below to see if you can beat mine.

09-09-11 Prediction
Atlético Rafaela 0-0 Newell's Old Boys 2-1
Colón 3-1San Lorenzo 1-0
10-09-11
Godoy Cruz 6-1 All Boys 2-0
Estudiantes 1-3 Tigre 1-1
Racing Club 1-0 Olimpo 3-1
11-09-11
Banfield 0-1 Arsenal 1-0
Vélez Sársfield 0-1 Unión 3-0
Boca Juniors 1-0 San Martín (SJ) 2-0
Belgrano 2-0 Independiente 2-3
12-09-11
Argentinos Juniors 0-4 Lanús 0-0

Score: 4, just breaking even on results, but no exact scores.

Apertura 2011 Argentina highlights

This is the overview page for the 2011 Apertura tournament. 

To view the latest article published about the Apertura 2011 tournament click here and for reviews and highlights of each round can be seen by following the links below.
Match Reports & highlights

Fecha 1  (Aug 5-7)
Fecha 2 (Aug 15-17)
Fecha 3 (Aug 19-22) 
Fecha 4 (Aug 26-28) 
Fecha 5 (Sept 2-4)
Fecha 6 (Sept 9-12)
Fecha 7 (Sept 16-18)
Fecha 8 (Sept 20-22)
Fecha 9 (Sept 24-26)
Fecha 10 (Sept 30- Oct 3)
Fecha 11 (Oct 14-16)
Fecha 12 (Oct 24-26)
Fecha 13 (Oct 29-31)
Fecha 14 (Nov 4-7)
Fecha 15
Fecha 16
Fecha 17 
Fecha 18 
Fecha 19 

See also:

Apertura 2011 preview Argentina

The Apertura 2011 tournament kicks off on 5 August 2011. The reigning champions are the only team to have managed to win more than one championship in the last 9 tournaments and are looking to become the first back-to-back champions since Boca Juniors won both of the championships in 2005-06 season.

There are four newly promoted sides in the tournament, Atlético Rafaela and Unión de Santa Fe were promoted as champions and runners-up while San Martín de San Juan and Belgrano de Córdoba won their promotion playoffs. All four of the promoted sides come from the Argentine interior, while the relegated sides were all based in Greater Buenos Aires and Buenos Aires Province.

There will be no Superclásico in Clausura 2011 after the relegation of River Plate meaning that the Avellaneda derby between Racing Club and Independiente will be the showpiece derby game of the tournament. The relegation of Gimnasia and Hurácan means that there will be no La Plata or Buenos Aires derbies either. There will be one new derby game between Colón and Unión of Santa Fe.

Seven teams will also face fixtures in the Copa Sudamericana during the tournament (Independiente, Vélez, Estudiantes,  Godoy Cruz, Lanús, Arsenal & Argentinos Juniors) however as the six teams other than reigning Copa Sudamericana champions Independiente face each other in their opening games, the tournament will not provide much of a distraction to the eliminated sides.

There are also five Copa Libertadores 2012 berths at stake for Argentine sides, Vélez have already qualified as Clausura 2011 champions, another place will go to the best performing Argentine side in Copa Sudamericana 2011, the champions of the Clausura 2011 tournament will receive a place as well as the two best placed sides in the Clausura 2011/Apertura2011 aggregated tables.

All Boys

Last season was All Boys first in the top flight since 1980 and they finished comfortably clear of the relegation zone. They were a tough side that were particularly difficult to beat on their Islas Malvinas home ground. They have made a lot of changes for the start of their second season back in the top flight, several key players have departed (Cristian Fabbiani, Emmanuel Gigliotti, Sebastián Grazzini and Carlos Casteglione) however the club have brought in a number of interesting replacements too including Hugo Bargas from De Graafschap, Maxi Coronel from River Plate, Facundo Quiroga from Huracán and Carlos Salom from Olimpo.

Prediction: Comfortable mid table finish

Argentinos Juniors

Argentinos Juniors lost fewer games and conceded fewer goals than any other team in the Clausura however they also struggled to score goals, bagging only 16 in 19 games. Despite their lack of firepower they still managed to finish in 5th place and if they can build on their platform of defensive stability they could do really well in the Clausura.

Despite their strong defensive record the majority of their signings have been defensive players including left-back Pablo Barzola and Ecuadorian defended Jefferson Hurtado. The only new face in the striking department is JJ Morales from relegated Quilmes.

Prediction: If  they can keep their defensive stability and find a few more goals they could be title contenders


Arsenal

Arsenal had a rather torrid Apertura and after only managing to win three of their opening 16 games they looked as if they might even have been dragged into one of the relegation places however they rallied to win all three of their remaining fixtures.

Arsenal have brought in a number of new faces including Guillermo Burdisso from Roma, Danilo Gerlo from Quilmes and Emilio Zelaya from Banfield. Juan Cobo could be the pick of their signings after playing an important role in helping Olimpo to their shock 4th place finish in the Clausura. Most of the departing players have been sold to sides in the lower divisions however Marcos Aguirre and Cristián Álvarez have joined newly promoted San Martín de San Juan.

Arsenal have managed almost a decade at the highest level of Argentine football with threadbare squads and virtually no supporters. During the Apertura they will also be trying to recreate their astonishing 2007 Copa Sudamericana triumph.

Prediction: Bottom half of the table, but safe.


Atlético Rafaela

After two consecutive defeats in promotion playoffs in 2009 and 2010, Atlético Rafaele finally earned their promotion to the Primera División as champions of Primera B Nacional. Atlético have made a few interesting signings such as Sebastián Carerra from Asteras Tripolis, Walter Gaítan from Los Angeles Blues and Darío Gandín from Necaxa.

On paper Atletico are the best of the four promoted sides, however they seem to have done less squad building than the other three sides and some of their signings look like gambles, especially former Boca Juniors player Walter Gaítan who is returning to Argentine football after 9 years in North America.

Prediction: Bottom half of the table, battling to acquire points for the relegation dogfight in Clausura 2012.


Banfield

Banfield have blown hot and cold ever since they won their first ever Argentine league championship in Apertura 2009. They have a number of quality players, score outstanding goals and are formidable opponents on their day however they also get bogged down in long winless runs and losing streaks. Their signings include the return of their talismanic goalscoring goalkeeper Cristian Luchetti, Ezequiel Carboni from Catania, Walter Acevedo who was one of the few consistent players in the River Plate midfield last season and Rodrigo López who was one of Estudiantes' best players in their Copa Libertadores campaign.

To make way for all of these new signings Banfield have also shed a number of half decent players, Julio Barazza to Colón, Enrique Bologna to Unión, Maxi Bustos to San Martín, Gabriel Méndez to San Lorenzo, Emmanuel Pío to Tigre and Emilio Zelaya to Arsenal.

It is always tough to make predictions for sides that have extensively rebuilt their squads however I have a feeling that Banfield will do pretty well in the Clausura.

Prediction: Top half of the table, just short of the three or four sides that will challenge for the championship.


Belgrano

Belgrano were the lowest placed side of the four promoted teams however they showed good strength and determination to beat River Plate in their two legged playoff match. Their key signing is Andrés Silvera from Independiente, who will be expected to score plenty of goals. They have also brought in a few more players with Primera Division experience including Tigre midfielder Esteban González, Juan Quiroga from Colón, former Lanús and Quilmes right back Hernán Grana and 22 year old winger Federico Mancuello from Independiente.

I'm a bit disappointed to see that Martín Andrizzi was packed off to Sarmiento and wont get to enjoy his return to the Primera División, however their signings seem pretty astute and I fancy them to do quite well, especially at home.

Prediction: Comfortable mid table finish


Boca Juniors

Towards the end of the Apertura Boca Juniors were beginning to resemble a decent team for the first time in a couple of years. The credit for this should go to manager Julio César Falcioni, who managed to instill some tactical discipline on the side after a dismal start to his reign.

The big change for Boca is that they will have to learn to play without their iconic goleador Martín Palermo after his retirement, however this may be a blessing in disguise for Falcioni who now only has one player in the squad that the fans will not allow him to drop (Riquelme). The club have lost one of their legandary players but another has returned in theshape of Rolando Schiavi who was a key part of one of the best Boca Juniors teams ever between 2001 and 2005.

Other than Palermo, Boca have lost a few other players, most notably Ricardo Nior to Newell's, Cristian Cellay who has been loaned back to Estudiantes, Cristián Luchetti who returned to Banfield and Fabián Monzón to Nice in France.

The pick of the new signings is Clausura 2008 top scorer Dario Cvitanovich who could be a great signing if he can keep up his impressive career strike rate of more than a goal every other game in the various leagues he has played in. Other interesting signings include Agustín Orión and Facundo Roncaglia from Estudiantes, Nicolás Blandi from Argentinos Juniors, Matías Giminez from San Lorenzo, Leandro Gracian from Independiente and Franco Sosa from French side Lorient.

With a pragmatic manager, a talented squad and the biggest fanbase in the division it would be a surprise if Boca Juniors struggled in the Apertura. A particularly good finish could see them qualify to return to Copa Libertadores in 2012, a tournament they absolutely dominated between 2000 & 2007.

Prediction: Title contenders for most of the season, top five finish.


Colón

With Banfield and Lanús having won championships in recent years and the relegation of Gimnasia at the end of last season, Colón are probably the best side in the division never to have won the championship in the professional era. This season they will face play their first Primera Division derby against local rivals Unión since 2003.

Colón will be led once again by veteran club icon Esteban Fuertes and he will be joined by several interesting new signings most notably midfielder Tomás Costa who never really settled at Porto before having loan spells at Cluj in Romania and Universidad Cátolica in Chile. The only big name departure is that of Joaquín Larrivey who returns to Cagliari after a couple of years back in Argentina on loan deals.

Colón finished the Clausura down in 16th position after enduring a terrible run of home form. They will be hoping to make significant improvements to ensure that they stay well away from the relegation zone.

Prediction: If Tomás Costa remains injury free and plays well, Colón could make the top half of the table.


Estudiantes

After Alejandro Sabella's surprise departure at the beginning of 2011 Estudiantes slumped from being champions with an invincible home record to a team that only managed one win in 16 games between March and June. Former player and one team man Miguel Ángel Russo is the new manager and he has made several big changes to the squad. Enzo Pérez had already agreed to join Benfica before Russo had arrived, Federico Fernández has joined Napoli, goalkeeper Agustín Orión has joined Boca Juniors along with Facundo Roncaglia and forward Rodrigo Lopez has joined Banfield.

Club captain Juan Sebastian Verón is getting on a bit now but is still a magical player, their season could depend on whether he can stay fit.

The most notable of their new signings are goalkeeper Justo Villar from Villarreal, Mariano González from Porto, Facundo Coria from Pachuca. Several former players are making their return to Estudiantes, Mauro Boselli comes back after a poor stint in Europe, veteran midfielder Diego Gavilan is back for a third stint with the club, Cristian Cellay returns from Boca Juniors and Damian Albil is back from his loan spell at San Lorenzo.

It may take him some time to rebuild morale at the club, however Russo seems like the best man for the job and I can't see him failing to improve on their dismal 13th place finish in the Clausura.

Prediction: Top half of the table

Godoy Cruz

Godoy Cruz are the provincial minnows that continue to surprise. They have developed an enjoyable attacking style, have recorded three consecutive top five finishes and have qualified to play at the continental level for only the second time in their history after last season's Copa Libertadores campaign.

The team have probably had the quietest transfer window with few big name arrivals or departures. I hope they stick with their high scoring attacking philosophy however I think they may struggle to compete on two fronts, if they progress in Copa Sudamericana their league form may suffer, however an early exit could also damage their confidence.

Prediction: Top half of the table, possibly a 4th consecutive top five finish


Independiente

Independiente are an unpredictable side, they finished 20th and last in Apertura 2010 but won Copa Sudamerica 2010, in Clausura 2011 they made significant improvements domestically but flopped out of Copa Libertadores at the group stage. During the Apertura Independiente will benefit from a bye to the quarter-finals of Copa Sudamericana as reigning champions, meaning that they will only face the distraction of a maximum of six continental games.

The club have made a number of interesting signings including Ernesto Farías from Cruzeiro, Osmar Ferreyra from Ukranian side Dnipro, Marco Pérez from Zaragoza and the relatively unknown Uruguayan defender Adrían Argachá. Making way are Andrés Silvera who joins Belgrano, Lucas Mareque to French side Lorient, Leandro Gracián to Boca Juniors and winger Federico Mancuello who will join Silvera at Belgrano.

Independiente finished 6th in the Clausura and had the third best scoring record with 30 goals. If they can tighten up the defence a bit and avoid getting too badly distracted by Copa Sudamericana they could end up as championship contenders.

Prediction: Top half of the table, championship contenders if things go well.


Lanús

In Gabriel Schürrer's first full tournament as manager Lanús put in a blistering finish to the season with an eleven game unbeaten run before a home defeat in the penultimate game against Argentinos Juniors handed Vélez Sársfield the championship.

After a massive squad restructuring during the January transfer window it is quite a surprise to see no major transfer activity at Lanús before the Apertura. Diego Braghieri joins from Rosario Central, Matías Fritzler returns from a season long loan at Hércules in Spain and Cristián Menendez returns from his loan spell at Emelec.

Prediction: One of the tournament favourites


Newell's Old Boys

Newell's had a dismal Clausura spending most of the season at the bottom of the table only to leapfrog Huracán to secure 19th place. They conceded far too many goals and only two teams scored fewer goals than the Rosario giants.

Although Newell's have cleared out a lot of "dead wood" from their over sized squad none of their new signings look particularly inspirational. Probably the most significant change is the departure of Rolando Schiavi and his replacement at centre-back by Hernán Pellerano from Almería. Uruguayan Carmelo Valencia has been brought in from Ulsan Hyundai Motors in Japan to strengthen the attack and their other attacking signings include Diego Torres from relegated Quilmes and Boca Juniors cast-off Ricardo Noir.

Prediction: 15th-20th place


Olimpo

Olimpo put in an amazing display to finish 4th in the Clausura and haul themselves out of the relegation places however they have lost several of their key players over the close-season; Nicolás Bianchi Arce to San Lorenzo, Ezequiel Maggiolo to Tigre, Martín Aguirre to River Plate, Juan Cobo to Arsenal, Marcelo Mosset to Atlético Tucumán, Roberto Brum to Argentinos Juniors and Diego Gavilán who has gone back for a third stint at Estudiantes.

Their new look midfield could feature new faces Adrián Lucero, Leonel Ríos and Ariel Rosada who look like the pick of their signings.

Prediction: A big struggle, 15th-20th place.


Racing Club

At the beginning of the Clausura Racing Club played some of the best football I've seen from them in my decade long obsession with Argentine football however they slumped badly in the back end of the season, finishing down in 15th place. Manager Miguel Ángel Russo left to take over at Estudiantes and has been replaced by Diego Simeone who is returning to the club at which he made his managerial debut back in 2006. He is the only manager in the division to have won the Primera with two different clubs, however he also played a big role in landing River Plate in their first ever bottom of the table finish the season after leading them the championship.

Racing have not made many signings but Agustín Pelletieri and Sebastian Saja look like potentially useful signings so Simeone looks to be working with virtually the same squad that played blistering football during Argentine spring but turgid dross as winter approached. Racing are an unpredictable side and Simeone is an unpredictable manager, I could imagine him leading Racing to their first championship in a decade to become only the 3rd manager to win it with three different teams (after José Yudica and Américo Gallego), but almost certainly not this season, so the club will have to give him time.

Prediction: 6th-10th place

San Lorenzo

After Ramón Diaz' second stint as San Lorenzo manager ended with a five game winless streak they brought in Omar Asad, who had worked miracles at Godoy Cruz before an unsuccessful stint with Emelec of Ecuador. He didn't manage to turn things around and they finished the Clausura in 14th after a seven game winless streak.

Asad has made a significant number of changes to the squad; Nicolás Bianche Arce comes in from Olimpo, Emmanuel Giggliotti from All Boys, Gabriel Méndez from Banfield and Berardo Romeo is back at the club after his stint at Quilmes ended in relegation.

Asad is an astute manager and he should make improvements if given the time, if results are not forthcoming the board may lose patience.

Prediction: Mid table


San Matín (SJ)

San Martín won promotion through a playoff win against a dismal Gimnasia side, despite having finished above Belgrano in Primera B Nacional, I see them as the weakest of the four promoted sides. A lot will depend on how their new signings will bed into the squad. Some of them look like potentially great signings including former Lanús player Marcos Aguirre will bring a lot of Primera División experience as will Maximiliano Bustos of Banfield. Nestor Ayala was a useful player at Tigre between 2007 & 2010 and Raul Saavedra looked a useful left-back for the other San Martín (de Tucumán) back in 2008-09, his only Primera División goal since 2005 was an absolutely blistering strike against Boca Juniors in 2009.

If the new signings work out for them, San Martín could prove me spectacularly wrong, but I think they are set to struggle badly for points and find themselves in or near the drop zone by the end of the Apertura.


Prediction: 15th-20th


Tigre

In Denis Straqualursi Tigre had the most effective striker of the 2010-11 season, they have managed to keep hold of him and have added veteran striker Ezequiel Maggiolo to the attack, an intriguing pairing that could work well together. They will need to do well as Tigre kick off the 2011-12 season with the worst points average of any of the established teams meaning that if they do not prosper they will find themselves embroiled in the relegation dogfight.

Tigre have also signed a number of other decent looking players including Emmanuel Pío from Banfield, Carlos Luna from Liga de Quiro, Walter Vílchez from Sporting Cristal and Carlos Casteglione from All Boys.

Prediction: Bottom half of the table


Unión

Unión have endured a long wait to return to the Primera División and will be striving to avoid an immediate return to the lower leagues. They have made a number of signings to strengthen the squad for the coming season bringing in Jerónimo Barrales and Enrique Bologna who both have Primera División experience with Banfield, Rodrigo Erramuspe who has some top flight experience with Lanús, Uruguayan Fabricio Núñez who was a bit part player for Godoy Cruz last season, Juan Pablo Pereyra who has top flight experience with Atlético Tucumán and Estudiantes and ex-Southampton flop Marcelo Sarmiento who has played top flight football with Talleres, Olimpo and Argentinos Juniors.

Unión already had a fairly strong squad so the fact that they have made no marquee signings doesn't bode too badly.

Prediction: 10th-15th place


Vélez Sársfield

The reigning champions have lost two of their key players from last season, Ricky Alvarez has gone to Inter and Maxi Moralez has also departed for Italy to join Atalanta. The only additions to the squad are Alejandro Cabral who has returned from his loan spell at Legia Warsaw and Leandro Velázquaz who spent last season on loan at Newell's Old Boys.

Despite losing two important players, Vélez still look like the team to beat in the Argentine Primera División.

Prediction: Championship favourites



Conclusions


Velez, Boca Juniors, Independiente and Lanús as the four most likely winners. Argentinos Juniors, Godoy Cruz and Banfield are the dark horses.

Olimpo, Atlético Rafaela, San Martín and Tigre to find themselves in the relegation places by the end of the Apertura and Newell's Old Boys to have another stinker of a season.

Relegation Playoffs Argentina 2010-11

Overview

Due to the complexities of the Argentine relegation system a number of playoffs were needed to determine which of the teams finishing between 17th and 19th in the 2010-11 relegation table would suffer relegation.

The first game was between Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata and Huracán who finished on identical points averages either side of the automatic relegation line. The losers would be automatically relegated while the winners would face a two legged playoff against San Martín de San Juan who finished 3rd in Primera B Nacional.

The other two legged playoff would feature never previously relegated River Plate who finished 17th in the relegation table against Belgrano de Córdoba who finished 4th in B Nacional.

Results

Disempate

22-06-11
Gimnasia y Esgrima (LP) 2-0 Huracán
Winner: Gimnasia y Esgrima (LP)

The disempate was played at Boca Juniors Bombonera stadium and as expected Huracán continued their dismal run of form with a 2-0 defeat meaning that they suffered automatic relegation while Gimnasia found themselves facing their 3rd relegation playoff in three seasons. In 2009 and 2010 they survived epic encounters with Atlético Rafaela, who ascended to the Primera as champions of Primera B Nacional in 2011.

Promoción

22-06-11
Belgrano de Córdoba 2-0 River Plate
26-06-11
River Plate 1-1 Belgrano de Córdoba
Winner: Belgrano de Córdoba (River Plate relegated)

Belgrano left River Plate on the brink of their first ever relegation with a 2-0 home win in the first leg meaning that River would need a two goal margain of victory in the return leg in order to remain in the Primera Division. Cesar Mansanelli put the hosts ahead with a first half penalty and Cesar Pereyra put them a step closer to the Primera División with a goal early in the second half prompting a pitch invasion from the River Plate fans who berrated their own players. Belgrano held on for the two goal win and had AFA handed out a similar punishment to those they had to other teams for pitch invasions and violence from fans this season, River could have ended up playing the return leg behind closed doors. Predictably the Argentine football autorities decided to ignore the pitch invasion and allow the River Plate fans to support their team in the most important league match in their history.

River needed to win the second leg by two clear goals in order to stay in the Primera División and they got off to the perfect start with a goal from Mariano Pavone after only five minutes. Belgrano got the ball into River's net in the first half however it was correctly disallowed for offside. River were the more composed side for the remainder of the first half and created the better goalscoring chances however they couldn't find the vital second goal before half time.

In the second half Belgrano striker Cesár Pereyra misser a one-on-one with River goalkeeper Juan Pablo Carrizo but some shambolic defending from the home team gifted an equaliser to Guillermo Farré. Mariano Pavone had a chance to pull one back from the penalty spot but he chose power instead of accuracy and his shot was easily saved by Belgrano goalkeeper Juan Olave. River never really got close to finding the two goals they needed and with a few minutes to go referee Sergio Pezzota was forced to abandon the game due to rioting amongst the River Plate fans. It seems that the rioting fans were completely unaware of what happened in Gimnasia's playoff two years ago when they were playing 9 vs 11 and found the two goals they needed to survive in the dying minutes.

After the referee abandoned the match a large number of River Plate hooligans set about attacking the police and destroying their own stadium, while innocent River Plate fans and Belgrano supporters found themselves trapped inside the stadium waiting for the situation to calm down.

26-06-11
San Martín (SJ) 1-0 Gimnasia y Esgrima (LP)
30-06-11
Gimnasia y Esgrima (LP) 1-1 San Martín (SJ)
Winner: San Martín SJ (Gimnasia relegated)

San Martín won the first leg 1-0 with after Oliver Paz Benítez deflected a shot from San Martín's Brazilian striker Roberval into his own net. Considering Gimnasia's amazing escape against Atlético Rafaela two years ago few San Martín players could have been fully confident that a one goal advantage would be enough however Sebastian Penco calmed their nerves with a goal in the early minutes of the second leg to open up a two goal advantage.  Things got worse for the home side midway through the second half when Milton Casco got himself sent off but José Vizcarra gave them a lifeline with a goal one minute later. Sebastián Penco was sent off with around a quarter of an hour remaining setting up a tense finale however San Martín held on for a famous aggregate win to return to the Primera División for the first time since 2008.

This result meant that the Primera División lost 4 teams from Buenos Aires and Buenos Aires Province and all of their replacements came from the interior, welcome diversification of the Argentine top flight. On the down side it meant that the Primera lost three of it's big derby games (Superclásico, San Lorenzo/Hurcán and Clásico Platense) and will only feature two big derby games next year (Clásico Avellaneda & Clásico Santafesino).

After the final whistle there were a few tears amongst the Gimnasia players and fans however they generally conducted themselves with dignity and scenes like the rampage after River's relegation at the weekend were avoided. There were two main factors in this, Gimnasia have been flirting with relegation for three years and in their hearts most Gimnasia fans must recognise that their team simply hasn't been good enough to deserve to survive a 3rd consecutive relegation playoff and the other factor is that they all witnessed what happened at River at the weekend and what a shitstorm of criticism it provoked and wished to avoid dragging the image of their club through the mud too.

Promedios - The Argentine relegation system explained

Olimpo players celebrating their 0-2 win at Boca Juniors
that put them one point clear at the top of the Clausura
and one point clear of the relegation zone.
One of the classic benchmarks of a good football knowledge is the ability to explain the offside rule. To me this is setting the bar way too low, the offside rule is pretty easy to understand, after spending a few minutes reading up on the offside rule you would have to be as thick as Andy Gray to fail to understand it. For me the real benchmark of footballing knowledge is the ability to comprehend the notoriously complicated "promedios" (points averaging) system used in Argentina and other South American leagues to determine relegation.

On Sunday 20 March 2011 Olimpo recorded their first ever win against fallen giants Boca Juniors with an impressive 0-2 away win at the once intimidating Bombonera stadium. This result lifted them to the top of the Clausura 2011 table on thirteen points from six games and also saw them climb out of the relegation places for the first time since they played Boca Juniors in the corresponding fixture of the Apertura in September 2010.

For people that are used to the classic home and away round robin European style season with standard relegation for the bottom few teams that is used in England, Spain, Italy, Germany and most of the other major European leagues the concept of being both one point clear at the top of the table and one point above the relegation zone is rather confusing. Probably the most unusual outcome of the "promedios" system was the relegation of Talleres de Córdoba at the end of the Clausura 2004 tournament despite their managing a 3rd place finish in the Clausura and finishing with the sixth best points total over the season.

The system that gives such unusual outcomes is actually fairly simple. A team's standing in the relegation table is determined by dividing the number of points obtained over the previous three seasons by the number of games played over the last three seasons. This means that at the end of the season most teams have their points tally divided by 114 (3 x 38 game seasons) with the exception of promoted teams who have their smaller points tallies divided by the fewer games that they have played. The benchmark for survival is usually around 1.2 points per game, only 3 sides have finished in the bottom four places with an average of better than 1.2 (Lanús in 2001-02 with 1.245, Argentinos Juniors in 2005-06 with 1.224 & River Plate in 2010-11 with 1.238).

I am going to use the "promedios table from the 2003-04 season (below) to illustrate some of the key issues.

Team Average Points Played 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04
River Plate 2.008 229 114 84 79 66
Boca Juniors 1.947 222 114 68 79 75
Quilmes 1.578 60 38 N/A N/A 60
San Lorenzo 1.526 174 114 57 56 61
Racing Club 1.500 171 114 68 53 50
Vélez Sársfield 1.464 167 114 48 66 53
Colón de Santa Fe 1.421 162 114 56 57 49
Banfield 1.403 160 114 48 48 64
Arsenal de Sarandí 1.368 104 76 N/A 49 55
Newell's Old Boys 1.324 151 114 51 49 51
Gimnasia de La Plata 1.298 148 114 64 46 38
Independiente 1.280 146 114 41 61 44
Rosario Central 1.280 146 114 40 62 44
Lanús 1.263 144 114 51 51 42
Estudiantes de La Plata 1.210 138 114 51 43 44
Olimpo de Bahía Blanca 1.184 90 76 N/A 51 39
Talleres de Córdoba 1.166 133 114 30 44 59
Atlético de Rafaela 1.131 43 38 N/A N/A 43
Chacarita 1.105 126 114 47 41 38
Nueva Chicago 1.026 117 114 48 41 28

2003-04 was unusual in the fact that the two worst performing teams over the season were also the two sides to suffer automatic relegation. In most seasons one of the worst performing teams survives relegation because they have a bank account of points from the previous two seasons to fall back on. This effect can be seen in Gimnasia's comfortable 11th place positioning despite having five fewer points in 2003-04 than Atlético Rafaela who finished in a relegation playoff position despite earning 43 points over the full season. To put this in perspective Westham's total of 42 points in 2002-03 is the highest ever achieved by a side relegated from the English Premier League and many sides have survived with an average of less than one point per game, Hull City survived with only 35 points in 2008-09, a total that would have meant certain relegation in Argentina. In 2007-08 Olimpo were automatically relegated in 19th place with 42 points.

The promedios system is notoriously hard on newly promoted sides because the majority of the established sides have this bank account of points to bolster their average if they have a fairly poor season. Many critics claim that this effect is exactly the reason it was introduced in the first place. The evidence backs this view as the "promedios" relegation system was only brought in to protect the "big five" most popular and richest clubs after San Lorenzo were relegated in 1982. The first beneficiaries of the Promedios system were River Plate and Racing de Córdoba who remained in the Primera División at the expense of Racing Club de Avellaneda and Rosario Central who would have survived under the old system.

Often when a side relies on previously acquired points from preceding "good seasons" for survival, they find themselves in big trouble when the next season starts because the good points tally from three seasons ago is discarded. This is the situation that Talleres found themselves in at the beginning of the 2003-04 season, they were lumbered with only 74 points from their previous 78 games and had to fight hard to try to avoid relegation. The Córdoba outfit romped to a 3rd place finish in the Clausura tournament and only five teams in the whole league acquired more than Talleres' total of 59 points over the full season, however their two previous poor campaigns dragged their average down to such an extent that they found themselves facing and losing a relegation playoff against Argentinos Juniors.

At the beginning of the 2010-11 season River Plate found themselves in a similar situation having endured two of the worst seasons in their history in 2008-09 and 2009-10. Even though they finished with the 6th highest points tally in 2010-11 they ended up suffering the first relegation in their 110 year history after a 1-3 aggregate defeat against Belgrano de Córdoba in their relegation playoff.

Olimpo's rise from rock bottom of the promedios to a position of safety in the space of only six games illustrates the one big advantage that newly promoted sides have; greater mobility. For a newly promoted side the three points from a win is worth 0.078 points at the end of the season (3 divided by 38) while three points for an established team is only worth 0.026 (3/114) in the final relegation standings. This means that a good run of form can still potentially save struggling Primera División new boys with half a dozen games or so remaining while an established team on the same average would be resigned to relegation.

This mobility is also a double edged sword, a poor run of form can see newly promoted sides plummet down the table as seen with All Boys in the Clausura. they began the tournament with 1.368 (26/19) points per game but only one win in their first six games has seen their points average drop dramatically to 1.200 (30/25) while fellow Clausura strugglers Boca Juniors who had also only obtained four points from their opening six games saw a much smaller decrease in their points average, from 1.400 (133/95) to 1.356 (137/101).

Once you get your head around the concept it is fairly simple in principle but the difficulty really kicks in when you are trying to working out relegation permutations. Unless you have been blessed with a mathematical mind capable of easily working out which of 76/69 or 113/107 is higher, you either need to get out a calculator or rely on someone in the media to work it out for you.

As I have shown it is easy to understand the principle but one unnamed computer game manufacturer famously failed to take into account the fact that promoted teams have their points divided by the number of games that they have played and just divided all the points totals by 114 at the end of the season, meaning that in their computer game a promoted team that won all 38 of their matches to obtain the maximum 114 points would almost certainly be relegated with a points average of only 1.000 points per game.

If after reading this you can now understand and explain the Argentine relegation system and already have a decent understanding of the offside rule, then by my estimation you are entitled to claim that you have a good knowledge of football.

Fecha 5, Clausura 2011 Argentina

Details of the fifth round of games in the Clausura 2011 tournament.
 
All of the video highlights will be available by scrolling down to the Results section and clicking on the red scores.


Preview

Preview & Predictions

Match reports

Colombian Teó Gutiérrez struck two goals in Racing's 0-4 win against Colón.

Banfield recorded their second consecutive away win with a 1-2 defeat of Tigre. Facundo Ferreyra scored the winning goal in the 91st minute.

Olimpo beat All Boys 1-0 to climb back to the top of the division, albeit only temporarily. Ezequiel Maggiolo bagged the goal with a second half header to join Esteban Fuertes as the topscorer on five goals. The three points helped Olimpo to edge out of the automatic relegation zone at the expense of Gimnasia who remained there aftet their game at Lanús finished 0-0.

The huge clash between San Lorenzo and Boca Juniors finished exactly as I predicted with a 1-0 win for the home team. Aureliano Torres scored the winner with an excellent curling shot which was worthy of a much better game. Martín Palermo showed plenty of determination and should probably have scored with one of the several opportunities he won for himself with his usual combination of bulk, guile and arial ability. For Boca Juniors it was their third defeat in five league games under Falcioni meaning that their next game against Olimpo is certainly a must win encounter.

Argentinos Juniors got their first win of the league campaign with a 1-0 defeat of Arsenal, Santiago Salcedo scored the only goal of the game with a great bit of control and a shot from the edge of the penalty area. Argentinos are unbeaten in 8 competitive games so far in 2011, but still way off the pace in 10th position thanks to the four consecutive draws that preceeded this win.

In Sunday's first game Estudiantes suffered a 0-1 home defeat to Godoy Cruz, former Estudiantes player Israel Damonte scored the only goal of the game with a second half header. The Mendoza outfit have bounced back well from two home defeats last week to record two consecutive away wins this week. As for Estudiantes it is hard to understand what happened, their home record in the Apertura was phenomenal with nine wins out of nine. They are playing under a different manager in a different stadium (the revampedCiudad de La Plata stadium) however they have now suffered two consecutive shock home defeats.

River Plate suffered their first defeat of the season, losing 1-2 at home against Vélez Sársfield. All of the goals were scored by players nicknamed Tanque. Santiago "tanque" Silva scored both goals for Vélez and Mariano "tanque" Pavone scored from the penalty spot for River. Both of Silva's goals were tap-ins, the first stemming from a dreadful mistake from River goalkeeper Leandro Chichizola.

Racing Club established a two point lead at the top of the division with a convincing 0-4 away win against Colón, Teó Gutiérrez scored twice to join Esteban Fuertes & Ezequiel Maggiolo as joint topscorers so far with five goals each. Pablo Lugüercio and Gabriel Hauche scored the other two goals.

On Monday evening Quilmes lost again suffering a 2-1 defeat at Huracán who will be relieved to take their first win of the season. Both of Huracán's goals were tap-ins from dreadful Quilmes errors, their goalkeeper Emanuel Tripodi palmed the ball straight to Rolando Zarate for the opener and Javier Cámpora gratefully scored a second after receiving a panicky clearance from Uruguayan defender Sebastián Martínez. Quilmes got a goal back late in the game but with no points in their opening five games they look doomed to relegation.

In the last game of the fecha Independiente ended their run of 16 games without a win ahgainst Argentine opposition with a 4-0 thumping of visitors Newell's Old Boys. It is Independiente's first league win since they beat Racing Club back on 10 October 2010 and the first time in history that both of the Avellaneda giants have won 4-0 in the same fecha. Nicolás Cabrera was the star of the game with two goals in the first eleven minutes and assists for the other two goals. Independiente's veteran international journeyman footballer Jairo Castillo came on as a late substitute and bagged the fourth goal of the game, his first goal for the club since 2004.

Results

11-03-11
Tigre 1-2 Banfield
Olimpo 1-0 All Boys
12-03-11
Lanús 0-0 Gimnasia y Esgrima (LP)
Argentinos Juniors 1-0Arsenal de Sarandí
San Lorenzo 1-0 Boca Juniors
13-03-11
Estudiantes (LP) 0-1 Godoy Cruz
Colón 0-4 Racing Club
River Plate 1-2 Vélez Sársfield
14-03-11
Huracán 2-1 Quilmes
Independiente 4-0 Newell's Old Boys

Positions

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Racing 5 4 0 1 11 5 +6 12
2 San Lorenzo 5 3 1 1 8 3 +5 10
3 Olimpo 5 3 1 1 12 9 +3 10
4 Banfield 5 3 1 1 7 5 +2 10
5 Estudiantes 5 3 0 2 5 3 +2 9
6 River Plate 5 2 2 1 4 2 +2 8
7 Vélez Sársfield 5 2 2 1 7 6 +1 8
8 Arsenal 5 2 1 2 7 5 +2 7
9 Godoy Cruz 5 2 1 2 10 9 +1 7
10 Lanús 5 2 1 2 7 6 +1 7
11 Argentinos Juniors 5 1 4 0 3 2 +1 7
12 Tigre 5 2 1 2 4 5 −1 7
13 Colón 5 2 1 2 7 10 −3 7
14 Huracán 5 1 3 1 7 8 −1 6
15 Independiente 5 1 2 2 6 6 0 5
16 Gimnasia (La Plata) 5 1 2 2 5 7 −2 5
17 All Boys 5 1 1 3 2 6 −4 4
18 Boca Juniors 5 1 1 3 2 6 −4 4
19 Newell's Old Boys 5 1 1 3 6 11 −5 4
20 Quilmes 5 0 0 5 3 9 −6 0


Show de goles




For more South American football highlights, including the Brazilian league, the pick of the rest and international tournaments:

Primera División Argentina - Clausura 2011

This is the overview page for the 2011 Néstor Kirchner Clausura tournament. 

To view the latest article published about the Clausura 2011 tournament click here and for reviews and highlights of each round can be seen by following the links below.

Match Reports & highlights

Fecha 1  (Feb 11-14)
Fecha 2  (Feb 18-21)
Fecha 3  (Feb 25-28)
Fecha 4 (Mar 4-7)
Fecha 5 (Mar 11-14)
Fecha 6 (Mar 19-21)
Fecha 7 (Mar 25-27)
Fecha 8 (Apr 1-3)
Fecha 9 (Apr 8-10)
Fecha 10 (Apr 15-18)
Fecha 11 (Apr 23-25)
Fecha 12 (Apr 30- May 2)
Fecha 13 (May 6-9)
Fecha 14 (May 13-15)
Fecha 15 (May 20-22)
Fecha 16 (May 28-30)
Fecha 17 (June 3-6)
Fecha 18 (June 10-13)
Fecha 19 (June 18-19)

Relegation playoffs

Facts

Champions: Velez Sársfield
Relegated to Primera B Nacional: Quilmes, Huracán, River Plate
Promoted from Primera B Nacional: Atlético Rafaela, Unión, Belgrano
Qualified to play in Copa Sudamericana 2011: Independiente, Vélez Sársfield, Estudiantes, Godoy Cruz, Lanús, Arsenal, Argetinos Juniors
Top goalscorers: Javier Cámpora (Huracán) & Teófilo Gutiérrez (Racing Club)

Clausura 2011 Argentina preview

The Néstor Kirchner Clausura 2011 tournament kicks off next week and the chances are that it will be another fascinating contest. Only an ardent supporter or a gambler could be drawn into making predictions on which specific team will win the tournament.

Over the last four and a half years the Primera División has been the most competitive league in the world with eight different winners in the last eight tournaments. To put this into perspective you have to rewind 30 years to find eight different winners in the English top flight, Aston Villa won it in 1980-81 and have been followed  Liverpool, Everton, Arsenal, Leeds, Manchester United, Blackburn and Chelsea. Similarly you have to go back to Hellas Verona in 1984-85 in Italy, 1977-78, FC Köln in Germany and in Spain Atlético Bilbao way back in 1955-56. Several leagues have never even seen eight different league champions in the professional era, let alone all within the last four years.

Anyone coming here for gambling tips be warned, I am writing this under the effects of opiates after an operation. A lot will depend on the fortunes of the Argentine clubs playing in the Copa Libertadores, a strong run could tire them out too much for a sustained championship fight but it could also potentially help them find consistency and a winning mentality in the league too. An early elimination could let them focus on their league campaign but it could also destroy their confidence and cost them even more points.


All Boys were one of the most entertaining teams to watch last season and it will be interesting to see how they manage to fit Ariel Ortega into their team. A half decent Clausura should see them avoid relegation but a poor run of results could see them slip back into the relegation fight.


Argentinos Juniors will be focussing most of their efforts on their first Copa Libertadores campaign in years. They have signed Santiago Salcedo and if the Paraguayan striker avoids injury and finds his form he could be a contender for the league top scorer. A mid table finish and a good run in the Libertadores would be the best that they could hope for.

Arsenal de Sarandí finished in their highest league position ever in the Apertura but a repeat will be unlikely. A consistent season could see them secure a spot in the 2011 Copa Sudamericana but I fancy them to fall back quite a long way.

Since they won the Apertura 2009 championship Banfield have been consistently decent top half of the table side. Their manager Julio Cesar Falcioni left to become manager at Boca Juniors and took inspirational midfielder Walter Erviti with him. They may have a rookie manager and a slightly depleted team but it is hard to imagine them finishing anywhere near the bottom of the table.

Boca Juniors fans will be expecting a good campaign from their team with Falcioni in the driving seat, however they would do well to remember last year's departure of Claudio Borghi after only 14 games in charge before they let themselves get too carried away. They have lost Chilean midfielder Gary Medel to Sevilla but in Walter Erviti they have an excellent addition to the midfield and one that the manager knows how to utilise. The least Boca's fans will expect is qualification to play in the Copa Sudamericana and a good start to the Libertadores 2012 qualification campaign. The interesting issue is how Falcioni is going to deal with the older players like Riquelme and Martín Palermo. At some point the club needs to look to the future but if Riquelme is fit the fans will not see him left out and it would take a brave man to leave out a player with Martín Palermo's goalscoring record. I expect some improvement on their 14th place finish in the Apertura but I would be surprised to see them rebuild quickly enough to challenge for the title.

Colón face their first full season without Antonio Mohammed in charge. Under his leadership they were consistently top half of the table and only just short of the championship run in on a few occasions. Fernando Gamboa has a lot of work to do to keep them from falling back but they seem to have made a few decent signings so I would be surprised to see them finish lower than mid table.

Estudiantes are the current champions and have one of the strongest squads in the division however two things count against them, they are very likely to have a serious tilt at the Copa Libertadores meaning an extra 10 games or more and the other is that it is a long time since anyone managed to win consecutive Primera División titles. I expect them to finish in the top five but would be surprised if they had the squad strength to win the league and make a strong bid for the Libertadores championship.

Gimnasia de La Plata have been struggling along near the bottom of the division for years, they have survived two consecutive relegation play-offs against Atlético Rafaela but this time I expect them to be automatically relegated. They cannot continue to rely on the poor form of recently promoted teams and I expect either Quilmes or Olimpo to overtake them. Even with the signing of Guillermo Barros Schelotto I don't expect them to survive.

Godoy Cruz have lost their influential manager Omar Asad to Ecuadorian side Emelec. His replacement is Uruguayan Jorge da Silva whose only previous experience has been with Defensor Sporting of Uruguay and Al-Nassr of Saudi Arabia. They have also lost several of the key players that helped them secure their first ever qualification to play in Copa Libertadores. Jairo Castillo has gone to play in Mexico and Cesar Carranza and Davíd Ramírez have joined Lanús and Vélez respectively. Their participation in Copa Libertadores and the loss of so many key figures is bound to have a big impact. I can only see them falling back from the role of high scoring, entertaining 5th place finishers.

Huracán had a dismal Apertura tournament finishing way down in 18th position. they have made a couple of interesting signings, Javier Campora (the top scorer from Apertura 2005) has finally returned to Argentina to play for them and Cristian Maidana has joined from Spartak Moscow. I can't see much improvement from them and expect them to spend the season involved in the relegation dogfight.

Independiente finished 20th and last in the Apertura but their fans will tell you the reason was their triumphant 2010 Copa Sudamericana campaign. Under the new rules their victory in Copa Sudamericana earned them a place in the even more intensive international Copa Libertadores tournament. They have made a couple of good signings, Leonel Nunez has returned to Independiente and Matiás Defederico will be trying to re-establish his reputation after a couple of disappointing years in Brazil. I don't expect them to finish bottom of the table again but anything better than a mid table finish would be a big surprise.

Lanús have done some quite extensive squad rebuilding under new manager Gabriel Schurrer, Santiago Silva, Sebastian Blanco, Hernán Grana, German Cano, Marcos Aguirre and Nicolás Ramírez have all left the club and Carlos Araujo, Cesár Carranza, Diego Valeri and Diego González have all come in. Given the amount of rebuilding and the rookie manager I find this one of the hardest to predict. They have the benefit of no international distractions but I'm still amazed that they got rid of previous manager Luis Zubeldía when he had been doing so well and find myself hoping that they end up regretting that decision.

Newell's Old Boys sold their iconic young midfielder Mauro Formica to Blackburn Rovers in January but I still expect them to have a strong tournament. They will be hoping that a good finish will earn them a place in the 2011 Copa Sudamericana.

Olimpo are bottom of the promedios (points averaging) relegation table as it stands and will need a big improvement on 17th position to avoid automatic relegation. They did show that they had the determination to win a good few games at home but their away record was pathetic. If they have a good season and finish in mid table they will probably end up facing a relegation play-off, if they have another poor tournament they will be automatically relegated.

Quilmes spent the first 13 games of the Apertura looking like dead men walking managing only six draws and seven defeats. They then pulled themselves together to win four out of their last six games to give themselves the scent of survival. If they can rediscover that vein of form after a 2 month break they would easily avoid relegation however I can't see them recreating championship winning form over the span of 19 games even though they should be able to field teenage sensation Juan Manuel Iturbe. I expect to see them near the bottom of the relegation table at the end of the season although they may avoid automatic relegation.

Racing Club actually began to look like a real football club for the first time in years towards the end of the Apertura tournament, they had their hopes of a Copa Libertadores spot cruelly pinched by local rivals Independiente but that could be a blessing in disguise. If they get off to a strong start I can see them finishing in the top five. Given their distinct lack of league success over the last 45 years only a fool would tip them for the championship but I'll put them down as my dark horses.

I expect River Plate to have a strong tournament, probably not tournament winners but they will hope to continue the revival under current manager and club legend J.J. Lopez and the lingering fear of relegation will be motivation for the squad. they have kept hold of most of their best performers from the Apertura and did well to keep hold of teenage sensation Erik Lamela so I expect to see them in the top five again but one thing to bear in mind is the fact that last time they got rid of club legend Ariel Ortega they slumped from championship winners to their worst ever finish of 20th and last in the table.

San Lorenzo are another difficult one to call, Ramón Diáz has had a huge clear out of players but given their lowly 13th placed finish last season the directors could lose patience with him before the end of the season if they do not see significant improvements. I respect Diáz as a brilliant manager and expect him to lead San Lorenzo to a decent top half of the table finish and with a good run of results they could be in the title mix-up going into the last few games.

Tigre had a poor Apertura but in Denis Straqualursi they had the division's joint top goalscorer. The first time I saw him playing for Gimnasia I thought that he had the potential to become a human tank of a player. If he continues to score a lot of goals Tigre could fight their way away from the relegation zone however if they struggle under new rookie manager Rodolfo Arruabarrena they could find themselves in danger of facing an end of season relegation playoff.

Vélez Sársfield were brilliant in the Apertura and were unlucky to finish second to Estudiantes. Like Estudiantes they are the only other team equipped to have a serious go at winning the Copa Libertadores and maintain an outside chance of winning the Clausura. They managed to keep hold of most of their key players and I would be amazed if they don't find themselves in the top five at the end of the season.