Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts

Apertura 2011 preview Argentina

The Apertura 2011 tournament kicks off on 5 August 2011. The reigning champions are the only team to have managed to win more than one championship in the last 9 tournaments and are looking to become the first back-to-back champions since Boca Juniors won both of the championships in 2005-06 season.

There are four newly promoted sides in the tournament, Atlético Rafaela and Unión de Santa Fe were promoted as champions and runners-up while San Martín de San Juan and Belgrano de Córdoba won their promotion playoffs. All four of the promoted sides come from the Argentine interior, while the relegated sides were all based in Greater Buenos Aires and Buenos Aires Province.

There will be no Superclásico in Clausura 2011 after the relegation of River Plate meaning that the Avellaneda derby between Racing Club and Independiente will be the showpiece derby game of the tournament. The relegation of Gimnasia and Hurácan means that there will be no La Plata or Buenos Aires derbies either. There will be one new derby game between Colón and Unión of Santa Fe.

Seven teams will also face fixtures in the Copa Sudamericana during the tournament (Independiente, Vélez, Estudiantes,  Godoy Cruz, Lanús, Arsenal & Argentinos Juniors) however as the six teams other than reigning Copa Sudamericana champions Independiente face each other in their opening games, the tournament will not provide much of a distraction to the eliminated sides.

There are also five Copa Libertadores 2012 berths at stake for Argentine sides, Vélez have already qualified as Clausura 2011 champions, another place will go to the best performing Argentine side in Copa Sudamericana 2011, the champions of the Clausura 2011 tournament will receive a place as well as the two best placed sides in the Clausura 2011/Apertura2011 aggregated tables.

All Boys

Last season was All Boys first in the top flight since 1980 and they finished comfortably clear of the relegation zone. They were a tough side that were particularly difficult to beat on their Islas Malvinas home ground. They have made a lot of changes for the start of their second season back in the top flight, several key players have departed (Cristian Fabbiani, Emmanuel Gigliotti, Sebastián Grazzini and Carlos Casteglione) however the club have brought in a number of interesting replacements too including Hugo Bargas from De Graafschap, Maxi Coronel from River Plate, Facundo Quiroga from Huracán and Carlos Salom from Olimpo.

Prediction: Comfortable mid table finish

Argentinos Juniors

Argentinos Juniors lost fewer games and conceded fewer goals than any other team in the Clausura however they also struggled to score goals, bagging only 16 in 19 games. Despite their lack of firepower they still managed to finish in 5th place and if they can build on their platform of defensive stability they could do really well in the Clausura.

Despite their strong defensive record the majority of their signings have been defensive players including left-back Pablo Barzola and Ecuadorian defended Jefferson Hurtado. The only new face in the striking department is JJ Morales from relegated Quilmes.

Prediction: If  they can keep their defensive stability and find a few more goals they could be title contenders


Arsenal

Arsenal had a rather torrid Apertura and after only managing to win three of their opening 16 games they looked as if they might even have been dragged into one of the relegation places however they rallied to win all three of their remaining fixtures.

Arsenal have brought in a number of new faces including Guillermo Burdisso from Roma, Danilo Gerlo from Quilmes and Emilio Zelaya from Banfield. Juan Cobo could be the pick of their signings after playing an important role in helping Olimpo to their shock 4th place finish in the Clausura. Most of the departing players have been sold to sides in the lower divisions however Marcos Aguirre and Cristián Álvarez have joined newly promoted San Martín de San Juan.

Arsenal have managed almost a decade at the highest level of Argentine football with threadbare squads and virtually no supporters. During the Apertura they will also be trying to recreate their astonishing 2007 Copa Sudamericana triumph.

Prediction: Bottom half of the table, but safe.


Atlético Rafaela

After two consecutive defeats in promotion playoffs in 2009 and 2010, Atlético Rafaele finally earned their promotion to the Primera División as champions of Primera B Nacional. Atlético have made a few interesting signings such as Sebastián Carerra from Asteras Tripolis, Walter Gaítan from Los Angeles Blues and Darío Gandín from Necaxa.

On paper Atletico are the best of the four promoted sides, however they seem to have done less squad building than the other three sides and some of their signings look like gambles, especially former Boca Juniors player Walter Gaítan who is returning to Argentine football after 9 years in North America.

Prediction: Bottom half of the table, battling to acquire points for the relegation dogfight in Clausura 2012.


Banfield

Banfield have blown hot and cold ever since they won their first ever Argentine league championship in Apertura 2009. They have a number of quality players, score outstanding goals and are formidable opponents on their day however they also get bogged down in long winless runs and losing streaks. Their signings include the return of their talismanic goalscoring goalkeeper Cristian Luchetti, Ezequiel Carboni from Catania, Walter Acevedo who was one of the few consistent players in the River Plate midfield last season and Rodrigo López who was one of Estudiantes' best players in their Copa Libertadores campaign.

To make way for all of these new signings Banfield have also shed a number of half decent players, Julio Barazza to Colón, Enrique Bologna to Unión, Maxi Bustos to San Martín, Gabriel Méndez to San Lorenzo, Emmanuel Pío to Tigre and Emilio Zelaya to Arsenal.

It is always tough to make predictions for sides that have extensively rebuilt their squads however I have a feeling that Banfield will do pretty well in the Clausura.

Prediction: Top half of the table, just short of the three or four sides that will challenge for the championship.


Belgrano

Belgrano were the lowest placed side of the four promoted teams however they showed good strength and determination to beat River Plate in their two legged playoff match. Their key signing is Andrés Silvera from Independiente, who will be expected to score plenty of goals. They have also brought in a few more players with Primera Division experience including Tigre midfielder Esteban González, Juan Quiroga from Colón, former Lanús and Quilmes right back Hernán Grana and 22 year old winger Federico Mancuello from Independiente.

I'm a bit disappointed to see that Martín Andrizzi was packed off to Sarmiento and wont get to enjoy his return to the Primera División, however their signings seem pretty astute and I fancy them to do quite well, especially at home.

Prediction: Comfortable mid table finish


Boca Juniors

Towards the end of the Apertura Boca Juniors were beginning to resemble a decent team for the first time in a couple of years. The credit for this should go to manager Julio César Falcioni, who managed to instill some tactical discipline on the side after a dismal start to his reign.

The big change for Boca is that they will have to learn to play without their iconic goleador Martín Palermo after his retirement, however this may be a blessing in disguise for Falcioni who now only has one player in the squad that the fans will not allow him to drop (Riquelme). The club have lost one of their legandary players but another has returned in theshape of Rolando Schiavi who was a key part of one of the best Boca Juniors teams ever between 2001 and 2005.

Other than Palermo, Boca have lost a few other players, most notably Ricardo Nior to Newell's, Cristian Cellay who has been loaned back to Estudiantes, Cristián Luchetti who returned to Banfield and Fabián Monzón to Nice in France.

The pick of the new signings is Clausura 2008 top scorer Dario Cvitanovich who could be a great signing if he can keep up his impressive career strike rate of more than a goal every other game in the various leagues he has played in. Other interesting signings include Agustín Orión and Facundo Roncaglia from Estudiantes, Nicolás Blandi from Argentinos Juniors, Matías Giminez from San Lorenzo, Leandro Gracian from Independiente and Franco Sosa from French side Lorient.

With a pragmatic manager, a talented squad and the biggest fanbase in the division it would be a surprise if Boca Juniors struggled in the Apertura. A particularly good finish could see them qualify to return to Copa Libertadores in 2012, a tournament they absolutely dominated between 2000 & 2007.

Prediction: Title contenders for most of the season, top five finish.


Colón

With Banfield and Lanús having won championships in recent years and the relegation of Gimnasia at the end of last season, Colón are probably the best side in the division never to have won the championship in the professional era. This season they will face play their first Primera Division derby against local rivals Unión since 2003.

Colón will be led once again by veteran club icon Esteban Fuertes and he will be joined by several interesting new signings most notably midfielder Tomás Costa who never really settled at Porto before having loan spells at Cluj in Romania and Universidad Cátolica in Chile. The only big name departure is that of Joaquín Larrivey who returns to Cagliari after a couple of years back in Argentina on loan deals.

Colón finished the Clausura down in 16th position after enduring a terrible run of home form. They will be hoping to make significant improvements to ensure that they stay well away from the relegation zone.

Prediction: If Tomás Costa remains injury free and plays well, Colón could make the top half of the table.


Estudiantes

After Alejandro Sabella's surprise departure at the beginning of 2011 Estudiantes slumped from being champions with an invincible home record to a team that only managed one win in 16 games between March and June. Former player and one team man Miguel Ángel Russo is the new manager and he has made several big changes to the squad. Enzo Pérez had already agreed to join Benfica before Russo had arrived, Federico Fernández has joined Napoli, goalkeeper Agustín Orión has joined Boca Juniors along with Facundo Roncaglia and forward Rodrigo Lopez has joined Banfield.

Club captain Juan Sebastian Verón is getting on a bit now but is still a magical player, their season could depend on whether he can stay fit.

The most notable of their new signings are goalkeeper Justo Villar from Villarreal, Mariano González from Porto, Facundo Coria from Pachuca. Several former players are making their return to Estudiantes, Mauro Boselli comes back after a poor stint in Europe, veteran midfielder Diego Gavilan is back for a third stint with the club, Cristian Cellay returns from Boca Juniors and Damian Albil is back from his loan spell at San Lorenzo.

It may take him some time to rebuild morale at the club, however Russo seems like the best man for the job and I can't see him failing to improve on their dismal 13th place finish in the Clausura.

Prediction: Top half of the table

Godoy Cruz

Godoy Cruz are the provincial minnows that continue to surprise. They have developed an enjoyable attacking style, have recorded three consecutive top five finishes and have qualified to play at the continental level for only the second time in their history after last season's Copa Libertadores campaign.

The team have probably had the quietest transfer window with few big name arrivals or departures. I hope they stick with their high scoring attacking philosophy however I think they may struggle to compete on two fronts, if they progress in Copa Sudamericana their league form may suffer, however an early exit could also damage their confidence.

Prediction: Top half of the table, possibly a 4th consecutive top five finish


Independiente

Independiente are an unpredictable side, they finished 20th and last in Apertura 2010 but won Copa Sudamerica 2010, in Clausura 2011 they made significant improvements domestically but flopped out of Copa Libertadores at the group stage. During the Apertura Independiente will benefit from a bye to the quarter-finals of Copa Sudamericana as reigning champions, meaning that they will only face the distraction of a maximum of six continental games.

The club have made a number of interesting signings including Ernesto Farías from Cruzeiro, Osmar Ferreyra from Ukranian side Dnipro, Marco Pérez from Zaragoza and the relatively unknown Uruguayan defender Adrían Argachá. Making way are Andrés Silvera who joins Belgrano, Lucas Mareque to French side Lorient, Leandro Gracián to Boca Juniors and winger Federico Mancuello who will join Silvera at Belgrano.

Independiente finished 6th in the Clausura and had the third best scoring record with 30 goals. If they can tighten up the defence a bit and avoid getting too badly distracted by Copa Sudamericana they could end up as championship contenders.

Prediction: Top half of the table, championship contenders if things go well.


Lanús

In Gabriel Schürrer's first full tournament as manager Lanús put in a blistering finish to the season with an eleven game unbeaten run before a home defeat in the penultimate game against Argentinos Juniors handed Vélez Sársfield the championship.

After a massive squad restructuring during the January transfer window it is quite a surprise to see no major transfer activity at Lanús before the Apertura. Diego Braghieri joins from Rosario Central, Matías Fritzler returns from a season long loan at Hércules in Spain and Cristián Menendez returns from his loan spell at Emelec.

Prediction: One of the tournament favourites


Newell's Old Boys

Newell's had a dismal Clausura spending most of the season at the bottom of the table only to leapfrog Huracán to secure 19th place. They conceded far too many goals and only two teams scored fewer goals than the Rosario giants.

Although Newell's have cleared out a lot of "dead wood" from their over sized squad none of their new signings look particularly inspirational. Probably the most significant change is the departure of Rolando Schiavi and his replacement at centre-back by Hernán Pellerano from Almería. Uruguayan Carmelo Valencia has been brought in from Ulsan Hyundai Motors in Japan to strengthen the attack and their other attacking signings include Diego Torres from relegated Quilmes and Boca Juniors cast-off Ricardo Noir.

Prediction: 15th-20th place


Olimpo

Olimpo put in an amazing display to finish 4th in the Clausura and haul themselves out of the relegation places however they have lost several of their key players over the close-season; Nicolás Bianchi Arce to San Lorenzo, Ezequiel Maggiolo to Tigre, Martín Aguirre to River Plate, Juan Cobo to Arsenal, Marcelo Mosset to Atlético Tucumán, Roberto Brum to Argentinos Juniors and Diego Gavilán who has gone back for a third stint at Estudiantes.

Their new look midfield could feature new faces Adrián Lucero, Leonel Ríos and Ariel Rosada who look like the pick of their signings.

Prediction: A big struggle, 15th-20th place.


Racing Club

At the beginning of the Clausura Racing Club played some of the best football I've seen from them in my decade long obsession with Argentine football however they slumped badly in the back end of the season, finishing down in 15th place. Manager Miguel Ángel Russo left to take over at Estudiantes and has been replaced by Diego Simeone who is returning to the club at which he made his managerial debut back in 2006. He is the only manager in the division to have won the Primera with two different clubs, however he also played a big role in landing River Plate in their first ever bottom of the table finish the season after leading them the championship.

Racing have not made many signings but Agustín Pelletieri and Sebastian Saja look like potentially useful signings so Simeone looks to be working with virtually the same squad that played blistering football during Argentine spring but turgid dross as winter approached. Racing are an unpredictable side and Simeone is an unpredictable manager, I could imagine him leading Racing to their first championship in a decade to become only the 3rd manager to win it with three different teams (after José Yudica and Américo Gallego), but almost certainly not this season, so the club will have to give him time.

Prediction: 6th-10th place

San Lorenzo

After Ramón Diaz' second stint as San Lorenzo manager ended with a five game winless streak they brought in Omar Asad, who had worked miracles at Godoy Cruz before an unsuccessful stint with Emelec of Ecuador. He didn't manage to turn things around and they finished the Clausura in 14th after a seven game winless streak.

Asad has made a significant number of changes to the squad; Nicolás Bianche Arce comes in from Olimpo, Emmanuel Giggliotti from All Boys, Gabriel Méndez from Banfield and Berardo Romeo is back at the club after his stint at Quilmes ended in relegation.

Asad is an astute manager and he should make improvements if given the time, if results are not forthcoming the board may lose patience.

Prediction: Mid table


San Matín (SJ)

San Martín won promotion through a playoff win against a dismal Gimnasia side, despite having finished above Belgrano in Primera B Nacional, I see them as the weakest of the four promoted sides. A lot will depend on how their new signings will bed into the squad. Some of them look like potentially great signings including former Lanús player Marcos Aguirre will bring a lot of Primera División experience as will Maximiliano Bustos of Banfield. Nestor Ayala was a useful player at Tigre between 2007 & 2010 and Raul Saavedra looked a useful left-back for the other San Martín (de Tucumán) back in 2008-09, his only Primera División goal since 2005 was an absolutely blistering strike against Boca Juniors in 2009.

If the new signings work out for them, San Martín could prove me spectacularly wrong, but I think they are set to struggle badly for points and find themselves in or near the drop zone by the end of the Apertura.


Prediction: 15th-20th


Tigre

In Denis Straqualursi Tigre had the most effective striker of the 2010-11 season, they have managed to keep hold of him and have added veteran striker Ezequiel Maggiolo to the attack, an intriguing pairing that could work well together. They will need to do well as Tigre kick off the 2011-12 season with the worst points average of any of the established teams meaning that if they do not prosper they will find themselves embroiled in the relegation dogfight.

Tigre have also signed a number of other decent looking players including Emmanuel Pío from Banfield, Carlos Luna from Liga de Quiro, Walter Vílchez from Sporting Cristal and Carlos Casteglione from All Boys.

Prediction: Bottom half of the table


Unión

Unión have endured a long wait to return to the Primera División and will be striving to avoid an immediate return to the lower leagues. They have made a number of signings to strengthen the squad for the coming season bringing in Jerónimo Barrales and Enrique Bologna who both have Primera División experience with Banfield, Rodrigo Erramuspe who has some top flight experience with Lanús, Uruguayan Fabricio Núñez who was a bit part player for Godoy Cruz last season, Juan Pablo Pereyra who has top flight experience with Atlético Tucumán and Estudiantes and ex-Southampton flop Marcelo Sarmiento who has played top flight football with Talleres, Olimpo and Argentinos Juniors.

Unión already had a fairly strong squad so the fact that they have made no marquee signings doesn't bode too badly.

Prediction: 10th-15th place


Vélez Sársfield

The reigning champions have lost two of their key players from last season, Ricky Alvarez has gone to Inter and Maxi Moralez has also departed for Italy to join Atalanta. The only additions to the squad are Alejandro Cabral who has returned from his loan spell at Legia Warsaw and Leandro Velázquaz who spent last season on loan at Newell's Old Boys.

Despite losing two important players, Vélez still look like the team to beat in the Argentine Primera División.

Prediction: Championship favourites



Conclusions


Velez, Boca Juniors, Independiente and Lanús as the four most likely winners. Argentinos Juniors, Godoy Cruz and Banfield are the dark horses.

Olimpo, Atlético Rafaela, San Martín and Tigre to find themselves in the relegation places by the end of the Apertura and Newell's Old Boys to have another stinker of a season.

Copa América 2011 Predictions

My predictions for the Copa América 2011 tournament.

Group A

Argentina

Argentina host Copa América for the first time since 1987 and nothing short of a win for the 14 time continetal champions would satisfy the home support. With players like Lionel Messi, Angel Di María, Javier Pastore, Ever Banega, Ezequiel Lavezzi and Sergio Agüero there is an undisputable wealth of talent in the Argentine squad however there are three factors counting against them.
  1. Once again, as in several previous tournaments, the majority of of the most talented players in their squad are attacking players who will be vying for limited places in the starting line-up while the Argentine defensive line is far from inspiring.
  2. The manager Sergio Batista is untested at this level and has made several questionable tactical decisions in the warm up games resulting in defeats to Japan Nigeria and Poland over the last year. They have also recorded some great results most notably their 4-1 demolition of world champions Spain and a 1-0 win against Brazil but serious questions remain about whether Batista has what it takes to win at the highest level.
  3. The advantage of playing the tournament on home soil is hugely diminished by the fact that 22 of their 23 players are based with European clubs and the only home based player is error prone goalkeeper Juan Pablo Carrizo who's mistakes played a big part in River Plate's relegation to the Argentine 2nd division. A few more home based players in the squad would surely have been beneficial.
Despite these complaints I find it hard to envisage such a talented side built around the best player in the world failing to make their 3rd consecutive Copa América final and with the home crowd behind them at Estadio Monumental this team should be capable of ending Argentina's long wait for a senior international trophy.

Prediction: Winner 

Colombia

Argentina look by far the strongest side in group A but Colombia should feel confident about bagging a place in the quarter-finals. Colombia have not impressed at Copa América since they won their first and only title in 2001 but their squad for this event has a number of quality players including Falcao and Freddy Guarín of Porto, Teó Gutierrez of Argentine side Racing Club, the enigmatic talent of Dayro Moreno, veteran Milan defender Mario Yepes and Hugo Rodallega of Wigan Athletic.

I reckon there is not enough strength in depth for Colombia to progress past the quarter-finals however some good performances in the early stages could bode well for the future of Colombian football.

Prediction: Quarter-finals

Bolivia

Bolivian football has fallen a long way back from the high tide mark of reaching the Copa América final in 1997. The strength of their squad can be determined by the fact that only five of the team currently play outside Bolivian domestic football, which is now by far the weakest domestic league in the CONMEBOL region. Shakhtar Donesk forward Marcelo Martins is their star player but the rest of the squad just underlines the problems in Bolivian football. The older generation have been under-achieving for over a decade but there are only five under-25s in the squad. The fact that the squad is made up of older players doesn't offer much in the way of big game experience either with only five of their older players boasting more than 30 caps. It is hard to see Bolivia achieving much in this tournament or using the experience to build for the future.

Prediction: 3rd in group (qualification dependent on standings in other groups)

Costa Rica

Last minute invitees Costa Rica have by far the most inexperienced side in the tournament with 11 of their 23 players without a single cap. The most experienced player in the team is 27 year old Saprissa defender Heiner Mora who only has 13 caps. Only two of the squad play outside Costa Rica, 18 year old Jacinto Calvo who plays college "soccer" in the United States and 22 year old forward Diego Madrigal who plays for Cerro Porteño in Paraguay.

I can't see anything but trouble for such an inexperienced side and hope that the confidence of some of these young players is not shattered by the maulings they will do well to avoid against Argentina and Colombia. If they can get a result against Bolivia they may well sneak into 3rd place but even if that leads to a quarter-final place they would be staring down the barrel of another mauling at the hands of Argentina or Brazil.

Prediction: Eliminated in group stage

Group B

Brazil

Back-to-back winners Brazil have a highly talented squad as usual including wonderful attacking talents such as Pato, Neymar, Lucas and Robinho, however as with Argentina their fate is much more likely to be determined by the quality of their defensive players. Aside from 33 year old Lucio looks set to make his 100th appearance for Brazil during the tournament and Liverpool's Lucas Leiva who has steadily developed into one of the world's best defensive midfielders their squad looks much less robust than the teams that won in 2004 and 2007. This may be no bad thing, I'd much rather watch a fluent attacking Brazil akin to the legendary sides of old entertaining but falling short that the efficient and results orientated sides that have ground out so much success in recent decades.

Prediction: Semi-finalist

Paraguay

Argentine manager Gerardo Martino has crafted a well balanced and tactically disciplined side that ran Spain really close in the Quarter-finals of the 2010 World Cup. He has stuck with pretty much the same team and tactics and I expect Paraguay to be the dark horses of the tournament. They have a good blend of youth and experience without actually having many world famous superstars. The squad would look even better if their human battering ram of a striker Salvador Cabañas had not been forced into retirement after being shot in the head in Mexico last year. The most famous name on the teamsheet is probably Roque Santa Cruz, who like team mates Paulo da Silva and Christian Riveros he has been strugging to get any first team action in Premier League football.

There are plenty of other less famous names in the squad my particular favourites are Nelson Rivas who ran rings around the Spanish defence until Carlos Puyol blatantly hacked him out of the game, Argentine born midfielders Néstor Ortigoza and Jonathan Santana, Enrique Vera of Liga de Quito and the defenders Antolín Alcaraz and Paolo da Silva.

If Paraguay finish second in the group they look set to face a tough tie against Chile or Uruguay however as the most well balanced squad in the tournament I reckon they could well make it to the semi's where they would almost certainly face a rematch against Brazil.

Prediction: Runners-up

Ecuador

Ecuador have a well balanced squad that is possibly a little on the old side and a little lightweight in attack. Their most famous players are José Valencia of Manchester United, former Manchester City striker Felipe Caicedo former Birmingham striker Christian Benítez and another player that never really made it in England Segundo Castillo.

This tournament looks like the first real test for the successors to the golden generation of Ecuadorian football and I fancy them to put in a few decent displays in what is undoubtedly the toughest group.

Prediction: To qualify for quarter-finals as best 3rd placed side but eliminated by Argentina.

Venezuela

In 2007 Venezuela made history by progressing from the group stage for the first time ever and with the expansion of their domestic Primera División, Venezuelan football is continuing to make positive forward steps. Venezuela only just missed out on their first ever World Cup qualification finishing just two points behind eventual semi-finalists Uruguay. They have two vastly experienced players in Juan Manuel Rey and Juan Arango and one of the real standout players from the 2011 South American Youth Championships in Yohandry Orozco. I can't see Venezuela escaping from group B, but hopefully Orozco will light up the tournament and the rest of the team will do enough for the positive vibe in Venezuelan football to continue.

Prediction: Eliminated in group stage


 Group C

Urugauy

After their wonderful performance in the 2010 World Cup and Peñarol's surprise passage to the Copa Libertadores final optimism is high in Uruguay. They have a team stuffed with quality players, most notably Luis Suarez of Liverpool and Edinson Cavani of Napoli. they also have plenty of experience in the shape of former two time European golden boot winner Diego Forlan, international journeyman footballer Sebastián "loco" Abreu and captain Diego Lugano. The fact that there wasn't room in the squad for a single Peñarol player after their run to the Copa Libertadores final comes as a bit of a surprise especially the exclusion of Luis Aguilar who looked a hell of a prospect in the Copa Libertadores game I saw him play.

Uruguay have been blessed with an easy looking group with a Mexico under-23 side in turmoil and a Peru side that really struggle for goals and results away from home.

Argentina and Uruguay are tied on 14 wins each in the tournament and nothing would be sweeter for the Uruguayans than to take their 15th title on Argentine soil however I see them falling short, especially if they win their group because bizarrely the group winners face look set to face much tougher quarter-final opponents from Group B  (probably Paraguay or Ecuador) than the group runners-up who would look set to face an easier game against Colombia, Costa Rica or Bolivia from group A.

Prediction: Quarter-finals if they win the group / semi's if they finish as runners-up

Mexico

With their senior side having just played and won the North American Gold Cup Mexico have been allowed to send a side packed with under-23 players to Copa América. The squad was further thinned when eight players were sent home after misdemeanours at their hotel. 22 year old Giovani Dos Santos is their most experienced player with 45 caps and Pablo Aguilar is the only other player to have made more than ten appearances for the senior national team. It is really hard to make any kind of predictions when I have barely heard of the majority of their squad, except that they wont be reaching the semi-finals as they did in 2007.

Prediction: 3rd in group (qualification dependent on standings in other groups)

Chile

New Chile manager Claudio Borghi has praised th work of his predecessor Marcelo Bielsa and has stuck with the majority of the side that impressed in the 2010 World Cup. They have a number of exciting players such as Alexis Sánchez of Udinese, 30 year old Monterrey striker Humberto Suazo, Matías Fernández of Sporting Lisbon, Sevilla midfielder Gary Medel and Jean Beausejour who found himself unfairly sidelined by defensive minded Birmingham City manager Alex Mcleish for the majority of the 2010-11 season.

Chile should progress to the quarter finals at least and if they finish as runners-up in the group I fancy them to reach the semi's by beating one of the weaker sides from group A, however if they win their group they will have a much tougher task against a side from group B.

Prediction: Quarter-finals if they win the group / semi's if they finish as runners-up

Peru

Peru have really struggled to score goals away from home but Copa América will present them with an opportunity to move on from their embarrasingly poor record in the 2010 World Cup qualification group. They have made positive steps under coach Sergio Markarián however their squad has a distinct lack of experience with 15 of their 23 players having made 10 or fewer appearances for the senior national team.

Prediction: Eliminated in group stage.

Fecha 19 Clausura 2011 - Preview and predictions

Preview and predictions for the 19th round of games in the Clausura 2011 tournament.

Preview

Last week I correctly predicted 4 results but didn't get any exact scores. This week I am really pressed for time and the relegation situation is so complex to explain that for the final round of Clausura 2011 I'm going to have a bit of fun and just run with my gut instinct and what I would like to happen rather than doing all the usual meticulous research.

The first five games all involve teams battling to avoid relegation and kick off simultaneously on Saturday afternoon.

There are two seperate battles the most important is the fight to avoid automatic relegation and only one of three teams can avoid it by finishing in a relegation playoff position meaning that they will face a two legged tie against the 3rd placed team in Primera B Nacional (San Martín de San Juan).

Quilmes are bottom of the pile but having failed to win any of their first 9 games in the Clausura they have pulled off an extraordianry recovery to give themselves a chance of avoiding automatic relegation but they still need to beat Olimpo to have any chance of survival. Quilmes also rely on the other two teams failing to win their games. Gimnasia have a home tie against Boca Juniors, which will be the final game for legandary striker Martín Palermo, Gimnasia will survive if they win and the other two don't, they could also survive if they draw and the other two lose given their superior goal average to Huracán. Huracán face a trip to Avellaneda to face Independiente, if they win they will avoid automatic relegation whatever else happens. If they match or better the results of the others they will also survive however if they draw and Quilmes win they will finish on the same points average and face a playoff to determine which team finishes in the higher position.

There are three teams involved in the battle to avoid the last relegation playoff position which would mean a two legged tie against the 4th placed team in Primera B Nacional, Belgrano de Córdoba. As with the automatic relegation fight the three involved teams could finish level on points average. Olimpo need to beat Quilmes to have any chance of avoiding the playoff and if they do a win for River Plate against Lanús and a draw for Tigre  at Argentinos Juniors would mean that the three teams all finish level on points average and a three way playoff to determine which team finishes where.

If Tigre win, equal or better the results of the other two they will certainly survive however if they lose and the other two win they will face the playoff. If River Plate better the result of Olimpo they will survive, if both River and Olimpo draw River will survive however if they both win it will go down to a playoff.

The last game on Saturday will provide the opportunity for Godoy Cruz to secure a top three finish with a win against All Boys. If they win and Lanús don't they could secure 2nd place their best ever finish in the Primera División.

On Sunday Arsenal and Estudiantes play in the early kick-off. There has not been a draw in this fixture since 2005 so I'm going to back the stalemate.

Newell's could avoid an embarassing bottom of the table finsh if they manage to better Huracán's result in their game against Colón.

Banfield have been inconsistent for the whole of the Clausura however this is clearly better than having been consistently bad like San Lorenzo. I'd be surprised if Banfield ddn't comfortably beat San Lorenzo in their last game of the season.

The last game of the championship will be the champoins Vélez against Racing. It should be an entertaining game Vélez will want to put on a good show in front of their supporters and if Racing bother to turn up and play football like they occasionally have in the Clausura it could be a cracking game.

Predictions

As the results come in I will fill in the actual scores and colour code the predicted scores, green for exact score, yellow for correct result and red for completely wrong. Each green score gets three points, each yellow score gets one point and red scores get nothing. If you fancy playing along fill out your predictions in the comments below to see if you can beat mine.

18-06-11 Prediction
Argentinos Juniors 1-1 Tigre 1-0
Gimnasia y Esgrima (LP) 2-2Boca Juniors 1-1
Quilmes 0-1 Olimpo 2-0
River Plate 1-2 Lanús 1-1
Independiente 5-1 Huracán 2-0
Godoy Cruz 1-0 All Boys 3-1
19-06-11
Arsenal 1-0 Estudiantes 0-0
Newell's Old Boys 1-0 Colón 1-1
Banfield 1-1 San Lorenzo 2-0
Vélez Sársfield 2-1 Racing Club 3-2

Score:4/10

Fecha 18 Clausura 2011 - Preview and predictions

Preview and predictions for the 18th round of games in the Clausura 2011 tournament.

Preview

Last week I broke my long run of not predicting any correct scores with a remarkable 5 correct scores out of 9 games, with another correct result my score of 16 points is by far my best attempt yet.


The first game of the round will be bottom of the table Newell's Old Boys visit to Olimpo. The outcome could have huge consequences in the relegation table, especially if Olimpo manage to win. The stats seem to support the case for a home win with Newell's having only won 1 of their last 18 away games in all competitions and their record in Bahía Blanca is nothing to write home about either having recorded just one victory in their six previous attempts.


The first of Saturday's games features the team with the worst home record in the division facing the team with the 3rd worst away record. Arsenal have only won one of their 8 previous Primera División games against Colón in Santa Fe but Colón have only managed one win and one draw in their last 8 home games. I have a gut feeling that Colón's legendary striker Esteban Fuertes to bag the decisive goal in this game.


The next game is the decisive encounter for Quilmes, without an away win against San Lorenzo they will be relegated from the Primera División. Although Quilmes have lost their last 2 away games the omens are actually quite good for the visitors; San Lorenzo have not won in four games and Quilmes have a surprisingly good recent record at "el nuevo gasométro" having won 2 of their last 4 Primera División games there. It seems foolish to back a side that are so close to relegation but I just feel that they have everything to play for and their manager Ricardo Caruso Lombardi has instilled some discipline in the side while San Lorenzo are in turmoil and have nothing to play for apart from a mid-table finish. I imagine that a late winner for Quilmes is on the cards.


The next game will also have implications for the relegation zone. All Boys could already be safe from relegation if Olimpo fail to win their game but assuming that they don't All Boys will still need another point to secure their survival. their visitors Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata are stuck in the automatic relegation places  a single point behind Huracán. A draw in this game could actually suit both sides assuming that Huracán don't get anything from their game against the league leaders later in the weekend.


The last game on Saturday features Tigre and Independiente, two sides that still face the possibility of finishing in the relegation playoff positions. A draw for visitors Independiente would secure their safety and they have a good record in Victoria having won two of their three Primera División games there since Tigre's return to the top flight in 2007. Neither of these sides have had problems scoring goals however they find themselves in mid-table positions due to their often shambolic defending. I fancy this one to be a high scoring game.


The early kick-off on Sunday features relegation threatened Huracán and league leaders Vélez Sársfield. It is remarkable to think that these two teams played an incredible final game title decider less than two years ago which Vélez won courtesy of a highly dubious goal. Since then Vélez have remained one of the strongest sides in the Primera División while Huracán have struggled badly failing to average a point a game since that dramatic game in July 2009. I can only see one winner in this encounter and the only question for Huracán is whether Javier Cámpora can find a goal to improve his chances of finishing as the league's top scorer.


Last time Estudiantes played River Plate they humped them 0-4 at El Monumental on their way to winning the Apertura 2010 championship. That game seems a long time ago now, especially as Estudiantes have only won 1 of their last 14 games and have not experienced a win at home since March. River Plate are without a win in five games and have not scored more than one away goal since a 1-4 win at Lanús back in 2010 11 games ago and they have not won away against Estudiantes since an astonishing 0-6 result back in 2002. River could be starting this game in the relegation zone depending on whether Olimpo had managed to beat bottom of the table Newell's on Friday. Both sides have struggled to score goals in recent months so I fancy this one to be a low scoring game.


Lanús will almost certainly need to win their game against Argentinos Juniors in order to keep their championship hopes alive. This fixture has provided a couple of cracking games in the last few years, the last time it was played Argentinos recorded an astonishing 3-6 away win to avenge their 4-2 defeat the time before. I reckon there is no way they are going to record a hat-trick of high scoring games, especially given that Argentinos Juniors games have featured the fewest goals so far in the Clausura tournament with only 24 goals (for & against) in their 17 games.


Last time Banfield visited the Bombonera to play Boca Juniors they came away with a 2-3 win however their manager in that game; Julio Cesár Falcioni is now the Boca Juniors boss and he has really begun to turn things around after their poor start to the season. Boca have become one of the league's form teams with a run of 8 games without defeat ans their veteran striker Martín Palermo has bagged 6 goals in his last 7 games prompting the Boca faithful to beg him not to retire at the end of the season, but as things stand this could be his last competitive home game for the club. Banfield Have been one of the most inconsistent sides in the Clausura having experienced 3 runs of 4 games or more without a win so far but they have won both of their previous games.


The last game of the round on Monday night features two of the leagues most entertaining sides. The hosts Racing Club have played some quality football in the Clausura but have also been the most inconsistent side since their promising start to the season imploded in unexpected defeats and training ground bust-ups. In all probability their visitors Godoy Cruz will already be out of the title race by the time they take to the field, they have been one of the best away teams in the league and could close in on their second ever 3rd place finish with a decent result in this game however they have not won any of their four previous Primera División games against Racing at "el cilindro".


Predictions

As the results come in I will fill in the actual scores and colour code the predicted scores, green for exact score, yellow for correct result and red for completely wrong. Each green score gets three points, each yellow score gets one point and red scores get nothing. If you fancy playing along fill out your predictions in the comments below to see if you can beat mine.

10-06-11 Prediction
Olimpo 1-1 Newell's Old Boys 2-0
11-06-11
Colón 0-1Arsenal 1-0
San Lorenzo 0-2 Quilmes 2-3
All Boys 1-0 Gimnasia y Esgrima (LP) 1-1
Tigre 0-0 Independiente 2-2
12-06-11
Huracán 0-2 Vélez Sársfield 0-4
Estudiantes 1-1 River Plate 0-0
Lanús 0-1 Argentinos Juniors 1-0
Boca Juniors 1-1 Banfield 2-0
13-06-11
Racing Club 3-2 Godoy Cruz 1-1

Score:4 Points

Fecha 17 Clausura 2011 - Preview and predictions

Preview and predictions for the 17th round of games in the Clausura 2011 tournament.

Preview

Last week I got 3/10 results correct but still failed to predict any correct scorelines.


Olimpo will need to win at Arsenal to avoid slipping back into the relegation places but they have never even scored a goal there in their 5 previous Primera División games there. Arsenal are also precariously close to the relegation places and a loss here could concievably leave them in the last relegation place by the end of the weekend.

All Boys have only lost 1 of their previous 9 games however they face a tough tie away at Banfield on Saturday. Banfield are one of the most inconsistent sides in the Clausura but they are capable of beating any side on their day.

Newell's Old Boys are off the bottom of the table for the first time since fecha 9 after Huracán took over at the bottom of the pile. Although they have not managed a home win against San Lorenzo since 2007 I still fancy Newell's to win this tie.

With only three games of the season remaining Quilmes need to win at least 2 of their remaining games to have the slightest chance of avoiding automatic relegation. On Sunday they face a Boca Juniors side that have recovered impressively from their poor start to the season with a seven game unbeaten run in which Martín Palermo has bagged six goals. Quilmes' home record against Boca is pretty poor, they have only won 1 of their last 11 in this fixture.

Gimnasia look set to face yet another relegation playoff but they may still need a few more points to ensure that they avoid automatic relegation at the expense of Huracán. This weekend they face Racing Club who have gradually slipped down the table after an impressive start to the season. Ever since 1998 this fixture has been evenly balanced with 5 wins apieca and 3 draws. Both sides have plenty of motivation, Gimnasia's provided by their fight to avoid automatic relegation and Racing Club are still hoping to qualify for Copa Sudamericana 2011.

Huracán are back in the automatic relegation places after Estudiantes completed their thrashing in midweek and they face a visit from a Tigre side that have clambered away from the relegation zone thanks to only one defeat in their previous seven games. Huracán have lost seven consecutive games and have not experienced victory since a 2-0 win against relegation rivals Gimnasia way back in fecha 7.

River Plate start the weekend in the relegation zone but they should be looking forward to the visit of a Colón side that have lost 4 of their last 5 games however River's recent home record against Colón does not make inspirational reading having drawn 3 and lost 1 in the last 4 times this fixture has been played.

Independiente have made good progress since finishing bottom of the Apertura and look certain to record a decent mid-table finish at the worst. On Monday evening they host Lanús who need the win in order to pile the pressure on title rivals Vélez and Godoy Cruz by establishing a two point lead at the top. Lanús are the form team in the Cluasura having a ten game unbeaten run however Independiente are also enjoying a decent run having won 3 in a row and avoided defeat in their last 6.

Estudiantes won their first game in 13 attempts in midweek however they have not experienced victory in ""la paternal" since 2004. Argentinos Juniors have won their last 3 league games against Estudiantes and need a win in this fixture in order to keep up their chase for a Copa Sudamericana berth.

The last game of the fecha is also the most important with league leaders Vélez Sársfield hosting third placed Godoy Cruz. Vélez have won all of their three previous Primera División games against Godoy Cruz without conceding a single goal but this season Godoy Cruz are one of the best away sides in the league having only lost 1 of their 8 away games so far.

Predictions

As the results come in I will fill in the actual scores and colour code the predicted scores, green for exact score, yellow for correct result and red for completely wrong. Each green score gets three points, each yellow score gets one point and red scores get nothing. If you fancy playing along fill out your predictions in the comments below to see if you can beat mine.

03-06-11 Prediction
Arsenal 2-0 Olimpo 1-2
04-06-11
Banfield 3-1 All Boys 1-0
Newell's Old Boys suspended San Lorenzo 1-0
05-06-11
Quilmes 2-2 Boca Juniors 2-2
Gimnasia y Esgrima (LP) 0-0 Racing Club 0-0
Huracán 3-2 Tigre 2-3
River Plate 1-1 Colón 1-0
06-06-11
Independiente 1-2 Lanús 1-2
Argentinos Juniors 0-0Estudiantes 0-0
Vélez Sársfield 2-0 Godoy Cruz 2-0

Score: 16 points (best score ever!)

Fecha 16 Clausura 2011 - Preview and predictions

Preview and predictions for the 16th round of games in the Clausura 2011 tournament.

Preview

Last week I got a half decent 4/9 correct results although I continued my long run of failing to predict a correct scoreline.


There are no Friday night fixtures this weekend so the first game featuring Colón and Argentinos Juniors kicks off on Saturday afternoon. This fixture has provided more than five goals in four of the last seven times it has been played but I'm going for the 0-0 bore draw given Colón's poor home form and the low scoring nature of most of Argentinos Juniors games so far in the Clausura.

San Lorenzo have won their last three home games against Arsenal, who have a poor away record having only won one of their last12 away games. A defeat for Arsenal would leave them far too close to the Primera División relegation places for comfort.

Quilmes face a tough trip to fellow Primera División new boys All Boys. A win for All Boys would ensure that they finish outside the automatic relegation places while a win for Quilmes would keep their fairytale Primera División survival hopes alive. Even though All Boys are in a decent run of form I am backing Quilmes to win this one as I really want the fairytale to continue for them.

Racing Club and Banfield are two of the most inconsistent sides in the Clausura. Banfield have fallen into the bottom half of the table after a run of four games without a win. Racing have won three and lost three in their last six games. This is a tough one to call but I'm going to go for a home win.

Estudiantes missed out on their first win in 12 games after the opposition Huracán fans got their game suspended last weekend. Their agonising wait for a win dates back to March but I fancy them to get one against Independiente, who despite a few wins this year are still notoriously poor on the road.

Boca Juniors are aiming to secure their first top half of the table finish since Clausura 2009 and a win against bottom of the table Newell's Old Boys would help them in that quest. Newell's have only won 1 of their last 17 away games and Boca have come into a fine run of form having remained unbeaten and picked up 12 points from their last six games.

Vélez Sársfield suffered defeat in their Copa Libertadores semi-final first leg against Peñarol in midweek so they will hope to bounce back with an away win against relegation threatened Tigre where they have won on all three of their recent visits.

The last game on Sunday is the biggest game of the weekend. Olimpo and River Plate are embroiled in the race to avoid finishing in the Primera División relegation playoff places and anything but an away win for River would leave them stuck inthe last relegation spot with only three games remaining. Olimpo have only lost 1 of their last 7 games and climbed out of the relegation zone last weekend with their surprise 0-1 away win at Argentinos Juniors. By round 9 of the Cluasura River Plate looked to be cruising to safety but a run of only 1 win in their last 6 games has left them in serious danger of experiencing their first ever relegation from the Primera División. the last time these two sides met in Bahía Blanca Olimpo ran out 4-0 winners but ended up getting relegated. I don't fancy a repeat of that scoreline however recent form suggests that a bet against the River Plate win is the right way to go.

On Monday night 3rd placed Lanús face Huracán who are only outside the relegation places by virtue of their fans getting their last game suspended by having a riot. Lanús are the Primera División's form team and I fancy them to win this enconter by a handsome margin especially given the fact that they haven't experienced a home defeat against Huracán since 1995.

The last game of the round features championship chasers Godoy Cruz and relegation threatened Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata. The home side have a far from convincing home record however the pressure will be on them to win and Gimnasia are one of the worst away sides in Argentina having only won 1 of their last 21 games on the road. If Godoy Cruz have any intention of winning the championship they must win this game.

Predictions

As the results come in I will fill in the actual scores and colour code the predicted scores, green for exact score, yellow for correct result and red for completely wrong. Each green score gets three points, each yellow score gets one point and red scores get nothing. If you fancy playing along fill out your predictions in the comments below to see if you can beat mine.

28-05-11 Prediction
Colón 1-2 Argentinos Juniors 0-0
San Lorenzo 1-1 Arsenal 1-0
All Boys 1-0 Quilmes 0-1
Racing Club 1-3 Banfield 2-1
29-05-11
Estudiantes 0-2 Independiente 3-2
Boca Juniors 1-0 Newell's Old Boys 2-0
Tigre 2-1 Vélez Sársfield 2-4
Olimpo 0-0 River Plate 2-2
30-05-11
Lanús 3-0 Huracán 5-0
Godoy Cruz 2-2Gimnasia y Esgrima (LP) 2-0

Score: 3 Points.

Fecha 15 Clausura 2011 - Preview and predictions

Preview and predictions for the 15th round of games in the Clausura 2011 tournament.

Preview

Last week I got a poor score of 2/10 correct results and 0/10 exact scores, my second worst effort to date. Hopefully I can return to form with this week's predictions.

The first game of the weekend kicks off on Friday night in Rosario where bottom of the table Newell's Old Boys host an All Boys side who are on the brink of securing Primera División survival. It doesn't seem like a wise bet to back Newell's in this game as they have only managed 2 wins in 14 games however they do have a historical 100% home league record against All Boys and they are running out of chances to pick up the points they need in order to avoid the embarassment of a bottom of the table finish.

The next game involves second place Godoy Cruz who face a tough looking trip to Banfield. The Mendoza outfit need a win in order to overtake leaders Vélez and their excellent away record suggests that they could get it however I get the feeling that Banfield will put up a good fight. My gut instinct says draw but most of the stats point to an away win for El Tomba so I'll say Godoy Cruz to win and we'll see what happens.

The first game on Saturday features the Primera División's form team, 3rd placed Lanús against Tigre, who are still battling to avoid finishing in one of the dreaded relegation playoff positions. This fixture has only been played three times since the 1950s in the Primera División and Lanús have had the best of it winning on both of their previous two visits to El Monumental de Victoria. This should be a cracking game as both sides still have a lot to play for.

the next game should provide an answer to the old unstoppable force vs immovable object question. The hosts Argentinos Juniors have the best defensive record in the division while visitors Olimpo have more goals than any teams but the top two with 25. Both sides need the win for a couple of reasons, both sides need 3 points to keep their faint title ambitions alive, Argentinos need the win in order to keep up their chase for a Copa Sudamericana 2012 qualification place and Olimpo need the win in order to clamber out of the Primera Division relegation zone.

The next game features two sides trapped in terrible runs of form, defending champions Estudiantes have now gon 11 games without a win while hosts Huracán have plummeted into the automatic relegation zone after 5 consecutive defeats and only 1 point from their last 7 games. The only bright spot for Huracán has been the goalscoring form of their new striker Javier Cámpora but they will not want to be reminded that the last time he played Argentine domestic football he finished the Apertura 2005 season as top scorer for a Tiro Federal side that ended up getting relegated at the end of the season. I fancy Estudiantes to break their winless run with a convincing win especially since they have only lost one of their last 8 league visits to Parque Patricios.

The last game on Saturday features Independiente and Colón. The hosts have recovered well from their pathetic bottom of the table finish in the Apertura and after a 4 game unbeaten run they look like they could potentially finish the Clausura in a comfortable mid-table position. Colón lost their last away game against Tigre but recovered with a 3-0 home demolition of Huracán in fecha 14. I fancy Colón to get one over on former manger Antonio Mohamed who deserted them for the Independiente job midway through the Apertura 2010 tournament.

Sunday kicks off with a do-or-die game for Quilmes, if they fail to win against the division's most inconsistent side; Racing Club their chances of avoiding automatic relegation will end up relying on a highly improbable run of results and their fate will fall into the hands of the teams above them. Occupying 5th position gives Racing the boasting rights as the highest placed team amongst the so-called big five however defeat would allow all of the other so-called-big-five to overtake them should they manage to win themselves.

Championship leaders Velez should cruise to a comfortable win against relegation threatened Gimnasia in the next game but the have been prone to the occasional slipup, most notably a home defeat against relegation threatened Quilmes in fecha 11.

After only one win in their last five games River Plate are in danger of falling back into the relegation places without a win against San Lorenzo. They have a strong home record against Los Cuervos having won four of their last five home league games in this fixture however all River fans will have painful memories of their embarrasing defeat in Copa Libertadores 2008 where they let a comfortable two goal lead slip away while playing against a San Lorenzo team that had been reduced to nine players.

I fancy Boca Juniors to win the last game of the weekend at Arsenal, a gut feeling. I may give some more detail and statistical analysis later. As it is I'm going out now so it'll have to wait.

Predictions

As the results come in I will fill in the actual scores and colour code the predicted scores, green for exact score, yellow for correct result and red for completely wrong. Each green score gets three points, each yellow score gets one point and red scores get nothing. If you fancy playing along fill out your predictions in the comments below to see if you can beat mine.

20-05-11 Prediction
Newell's Old Boys 1-0 All Boys 2-0
Banfield 1-1Godoy Cruz 2-3
21-05-11
Tigre 0-3 Lanús 1-2
Argentinos Juniors 0-1 Olimpo 1-0
Huracán Suspended/ 0-3 Estudiantes 1-4
Independiente 3-1 Colón 0-1
22-05-11
Quilmes 2-0 Racing Club 2-1
Vélez Sársfield 2-0 Gimnais y Esgrima (LP) 3-0
River Plate 1-1 San Lorenzo 2-1
Arsenal 2-2 Boca Juniors 0-2

Score: 5 points (after the completion of the suspended Huracán-Estudiantes game