Last week I correctly predicted 4 results but didn't get any exact scores. This week I am really pressed for time and the relegation situation is so complex to explain that for the final round of Clausura 2011 I'm going to have a bit of fun and just run with my gut instinct and what I would like to happen rather than doing all the usual meticulous research.
The first five games all involve teams battling to avoid relegation and kick off simultaneously on Saturday afternoon.
There are two seperate battles the most important is the fight to avoid automatic relegation and only one of three teams can avoid it by finishing in a relegation playoff position meaning that they will face a two legged tie against the 3rd placed team in Primera B Nacional (San Martín de San Juan).
Quilmes are bottom of the pile but having failed to win any of their first 9 games in the Clausura they have pulled off an extraordianry recovery to give themselves a chance of avoiding automatic relegation but they still need to beat Olimpo to have any chance of survival. Quilmes also rely on the other two teams failing to win their games. Gimnasia have a home tie against Boca Juniors, which will be the final game for legandary striker Martín Palermo, Gimnasia will survive if they win and the other two don't, they could also survive if they draw and the other two lose given their superior goal average to Huracán. Huracán face a trip to Avellaneda to face Independiente, if they win they will avoid automatic relegation whatever else happens. If they match or better the results of the others they will also survive however if they draw and Quilmes win they will finish on the same points average and face a playoff to determine which team finishes in the higher position.
There are three teams involved in the battle to avoid the last relegation playoff position which would mean a two legged tie against the 4th placed team in Primera B Nacional, Belgrano de Córdoba. As with the automatic relegation fight the three involved teams could finish level on points average. Olimpo need to beat Quilmes to have any chance of avoiding the playoff and if they do a win for River Plate against Lanús and a draw for Tigre at Argentinos Juniors would mean that the three teams all finish level on points average and a three way playoff to determine which team finishes where.
If Tigre win, equal or better the results of the other two they will certainly survive however if they lose and the other two win they will face the playoff. If River Plate better the result of Olimpo they will survive, if both River and Olimpo draw River will survive however if they both win it will go down to a playoff.
The last game on Saturday will provide the opportunity for Godoy Cruz to secure a top three finish with a win against All Boys. If they win and Lanús don't they could secure 2nd place their best ever finish in the Primera División.
On Sunday Arsenal and Estudiantes play in the early kick-off. There has not been a draw in this fixture since 2005 so I'm going to back the stalemate.
Newell's could avoid an embarassing bottom of the table finsh if they manage to better Huracán's result in their game against Colón.
Banfield have been inconsistent for the whole of the Clausura however this is clearly better than having been consistently bad like San Lorenzo. I'd be surprised if Banfield ddn't comfortably beat San Lorenzo in their last game of the season.
The last game of the championship will be the champoins Vélez against Racing. It should be an entertaining game Vélez will want to put on a good show in front of their supporters and if Racing bother to turn up and play football like they occasionally have in the Clausura it could be a cracking game.
As the results come in I will fill in the actual scores and colour code the predicted scores, green for exact score, yellow for correct result and red for completely wrong. Each green score gets three points, each yellow score gets one point and red scores get nothing. If you fancy playing along fill out your predictions in the comments below to see if you can beat mine.
|Gimnasia y Esgrima (LP)||2-2||Boca Juniors||1-1|
|Godoy Cruz||1-0||All Boys||3-1|
|Newell's Old Boys||1-0||Colón||1-1|
|Vélez Sársfield||2-1||Racing Club||3-2|