Showing posts with label Preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Preview. Show all posts

Preview Fecha 6 Apertura 2011 Argentina

Preview and predictions for the 6th round of games of the Argentine Apertura 2011 tournament.

Preview

Unfortunately, due to lack of time I have not had the opportunity to make predictions for the first five rounds of the Apertura tournament. 


My best points tally from Clausura 2011 was 16 points (5 correct scorelines & another correct outcome) and my worst was just 2 points, hopefully I can beat both of those records during Apertura 2011.


In the first game on Friday evening league leaders Atlético Rafaela host Newell's Old Boys. The two sides have not met in a competitive game for many years so the head-to-head stats are pretty much useless. Newell's have looked much better than they did as they struggled to a 19th place in the Clausura however I fancy the home side to continue  the top of the table feel good factor for at least one more round with a win in this game.

The second game features two sides with ambitions to finish in the top five, San Lorenzo suffered an embarrassing 0-1 home defeat to Belgrano last weekend and they have not scored more than a single goal in an away game against Colón since 1995.

In the early kick off on Saturday Godoy Cruz will attempt to bag their third consecutive league win and their fifth game without defeat in all competitions when they face All Boys. The only time this fixture has been played before in the top flight was a 1-0 win for Godoy Cruz at the back end of Clausura 2011, only a few months ago.

Estudiantes have only won two of their previous 22 games, and one of them was their midweek win against Arsenal which was not enough to prevent them from being eliminated from Copa Sudamericana, it did however end their astonishing run of 9 home games without a win. Tigre will be tough opponents, they are fighting for Primera Division survival and have started the season pretty well.

Saturday's last game features two of the most entertaining sides from Clausura 2011. Racing Club have started the Apertura in fine form but their visitors Olimpo have struggled after losing many of their key players from last season. Racing have a surprisingly poor home record against Olimpo having only won two of the previous six encounters. the most recent encounter between the sides was a thoroughly enjoyable 4-3 win for Racing, hopefully Saturday's encounter will be of similar entertainment value.

Predictions

As the results come in I will fill in the actual scores and colour code the predicted scores, green for exact scoreline , yellow for correct result and red for completely wrong. Each green score gets three points, each yellow score gets one point and red scores get nothing. If you fancy playing along fill out your predictions in the comments below to see if you can beat mine.

09-09-11 Prediction
Atlético Rafaela 0-0 Newell's Old Boys 2-1
Colón 3-1San Lorenzo 1-0
10-09-11
Godoy Cruz 6-1 All Boys 2-0
Estudiantes 1-3 Tigre 1-1
Racing Club 1-0 Olimpo 3-1
11-09-11
Banfield 0-1 Arsenal 1-0
Vélez Sársfield 0-1 Unión 3-0
Boca Juniors 1-0 San Martín (SJ) 2-0
Belgrano 2-0 Independiente 2-3
12-09-11
Argentinos Juniors 0-4 Lanús 0-0

Score: 4, just breaking even on results, but no exact scores.

Apertura 2011 preview Argentina

The Apertura 2011 tournament kicks off on 5 August 2011. The reigning champions are the only team to have managed to win more than one championship in the last 9 tournaments and are looking to become the first back-to-back champions since Boca Juniors won both of the championships in 2005-06 season.

There are four newly promoted sides in the tournament, Atlético Rafaela and Unión de Santa Fe were promoted as champions and runners-up while San Martín de San Juan and Belgrano de Córdoba won their promotion playoffs. All four of the promoted sides come from the Argentine interior, while the relegated sides were all based in Greater Buenos Aires and Buenos Aires Province.

There will be no Superclásico in Clausura 2011 after the relegation of River Plate meaning that the Avellaneda derby between Racing Club and Independiente will be the showpiece derby game of the tournament. The relegation of Gimnasia and Hurácan means that there will be no La Plata or Buenos Aires derbies either. There will be one new derby game between Colón and Unión of Santa Fe.

Seven teams will also face fixtures in the Copa Sudamericana during the tournament (Independiente, Vélez, Estudiantes,  Godoy Cruz, Lanús, Arsenal & Argentinos Juniors) however as the six teams other than reigning Copa Sudamericana champions Independiente face each other in their opening games, the tournament will not provide much of a distraction to the eliminated sides.

There are also five Copa Libertadores 2012 berths at stake for Argentine sides, Vélez have already qualified as Clausura 2011 champions, another place will go to the best performing Argentine side in Copa Sudamericana 2011, the champions of the Clausura 2011 tournament will receive a place as well as the two best placed sides in the Clausura 2011/Apertura2011 aggregated tables.

All Boys

Last season was All Boys first in the top flight since 1980 and they finished comfortably clear of the relegation zone. They were a tough side that were particularly difficult to beat on their Islas Malvinas home ground. They have made a lot of changes for the start of their second season back in the top flight, several key players have departed (Cristian Fabbiani, Emmanuel Gigliotti, Sebastián Grazzini and Carlos Casteglione) however the club have brought in a number of interesting replacements too including Hugo Bargas from De Graafschap, Maxi Coronel from River Plate, Facundo Quiroga from Huracán and Carlos Salom from Olimpo.

Prediction: Comfortable mid table finish

Argentinos Juniors

Argentinos Juniors lost fewer games and conceded fewer goals than any other team in the Clausura however they also struggled to score goals, bagging only 16 in 19 games. Despite their lack of firepower they still managed to finish in 5th place and if they can build on their platform of defensive stability they could do really well in the Clausura.

Despite their strong defensive record the majority of their signings have been defensive players including left-back Pablo Barzola and Ecuadorian defended Jefferson Hurtado. The only new face in the striking department is JJ Morales from relegated Quilmes.

Prediction: If  they can keep their defensive stability and find a few more goals they could be title contenders


Arsenal

Arsenal had a rather torrid Apertura and after only managing to win three of their opening 16 games they looked as if they might even have been dragged into one of the relegation places however they rallied to win all three of their remaining fixtures.

Arsenal have brought in a number of new faces including Guillermo Burdisso from Roma, Danilo Gerlo from Quilmes and Emilio Zelaya from Banfield. Juan Cobo could be the pick of their signings after playing an important role in helping Olimpo to their shock 4th place finish in the Clausura. Most of the departing players have been sold to sides in the lower divisions however Marcos Aguirre and Cristián Álvarez have joined newly promoted San Martín de San Juan.

Arsenal have managed almost a decade at the highest level of Argentine football with threadbare squads and virtually no supporters. During the Apertura they will also be trying to recreate their astonishing 2007 Copa Sudamericana triumph.

Prediction: Bottom half of the table, but safe.


Atlético Rafaela

After two consecutive defeats in promotion playoffs in 2009 and 2010, Atlético Rafaele finally earned their promotion to the Primera División as champions of Primera B Nacional. Atlético have made a few interesting signings such as Sebastián Carerra from Asteras Tripolis, Walter Gaítan from Los Angeles Blues and Darío Gandín from Necaxa.

On paper Atletico are the best of the four promoted sides, however they seem to have done less squad building than the other three sides and some of their signings look like gambles, especially former Boca Juniors player Walter Gaítan who is returning to Argentine football after 9 years in North America.

Prediction: Bottom half of the table, battling to acquire points for the relegation dogfight in Clausura 2012.


Banfield

Banfield have blown hot and cold ever since they won their first ever Argentine league championship in Apertura 2009. They have a number of quality players, score outstanding goals and are formidable opponents on their day however they also get bogged down in long winless runs and losing streaks. Their signings include the return of their talismanic goalscoring goalkeeper Cristian Luchetti, Ezequiel Carboni from Catania, Walter Acevedo who was one of the few consistent players in the River Plate midfield last season and Rodrigo López who was one of Estudiantes' best players in their Copa Libertadores campaign.

To make way for all of these new signings Banfield have also shed a number of half decent players, Julio Barazza to Colón, Enrique Bologna to Unión, Maxi Bustos to San Martín, Gabriel Méndez to San Lorenzo, Emmanuel Pío to Tigre and Emilio Zelaya to Arsenal.

It is always tough to make predictions for sides that have extensively rebuilt their squads however I have a feeling that Banfield will do pretty well in the Clausura.

Prediction: Top half of the table, just short of the three or four sides that will challenge for the championship.


Belgrano

Belgrano were the lowest placed side of the four promoted teams however they showed good strength and determination to beat River Plate in their two legged playoff match. Their key signing is Andrés Silvera from Independiente, who will be expected to score plenty of goals. They have also brought in a few more players with Primera Division experience including Tigre midfielder Esteban González, Juan Quiroga from Colón, former Lanús and Quilmes right back Hernán Grana and 22 year old winger Federico Mancuello from Independiente.

I'm a bit disappointed to see that Martín Andrizzi was packed off to Sarmiento and wont get to enjoy his return to the Primera División, however their signings seem pretty astute and I fancy them to do quite well, especially at home.

Prediction: Comfortable mid table finish


Boca Juniors

Towards the end of the Apertura Boca Juniors were beginning to resemble a decent team for the first time in a couple of years. The credit for this should go to manager Julio César Falcioni, who managed to instill some tactical discipline on the side after a dismal start to his reign.

The big change for Boca is that they will have to learn to play without their iconic goleador Martín Palermo after his retirement, however this may be a blessing in disguise for Falcioni who now only has one player in the squad that the fans will not allow him to drop (Riquelme). The club have lost one of their legandary players but another has returned in theshape of Rolando Schiavi who was a key part of one of the best Boca Juniors teams ever between 2001 and 2005.

Other than Palermo, Boca have lost a few other players, most notably Ricardo Nior to Newell's, Cristian Cellay who has been loaned back to Estudiantes, Cristián Luchetti who returned to Banfield and Fabián Monzón to Nice in France.

The pick of the new signings is Clausura 2008 top scorer Dario Cvitanovich who could be a great signing if he can keep up his impressive career strike rate of more than a goal every other game in the various leagues he has played in. Other interesting signings include Agustín Orión and Facundo Roncaglia from Estudiantes, Nicolás Blandi from Argentinos Juniors, Matías Giminez from San Lorenzo, Leandro Gracian from Independiente and Franco Sosa from French side Lorient.

With a pragmatic manager, a talented squad and the biggest fanbase in the division it would be a surprise if Boca Juniors struggled in the Apertura. A particularly good finish could see them qualify to return to Copa Libertadores in 2012, a tournament they absolutely dominated between 2000 & 2007.

Prediction: Title contenders for most of the season, top five finish.


Colón

With Banfield and Lanús having won championships in recent years and the relegation of Gimnasia at the end of last season, Colón are probably the best side in the division never to have won the championship in the professional era. This season they will face play their first Primera Division derby against local rivals Unión since 2003.

Colón will be led once again by veteran club icon Esteban Fuertes and he will be joined by several interesting new signings most notably midfielder Tomás Costa who never really settled at Porto before having loan spells at Cluj in Romania and Universidad Cátolica in Chile. The only big name departure is that of Joaquín Larrivey who returns to Cagliari after a couple of years back in Argentina on loan deals.

Colón finished the Clausura down in 16th position after enduring a terrible run of home form. They will be hoping to make significant improvements to ensure that they stay well away from the relegation zone.

Prediction: If Tomás Costa remains injury free and plays well, Colón could make the top half of the table.


Estudiantes

After Alejandro Sabella's surprise departure at the beginning of 2011 Estudiantes slumped from being champions with an invincible home record to a team that only managed one win in 16 games between March and June. Former player and one team man Miguel Ángel Russo is the new manager and he has made several big changes to the squad. Enzo Pérez had already agreed to join Benfica before Russo had arrived, Federico Fernández has joined Napoli, goalkeeper Agustín Orión has joined Boca Juniors along with Facundo Roncaglia and forward Rodrigo Lopez has joined Banfield.

Club captain Juan Sebastian Verón is getting on a bit now but is still a magical player, their season could depend on whether he can stay fit.

The most notable of their new signings are goalkeeper Justo Villar from Villarreal, Mariano González from Porto, Facundo Coria from Pachuca. Several former players are making their return to Estudiantes, Mauro Boselli comes back after a poor stint in Europe, veteran midfielder Diego Gavilan is back for a third stint with the club, Cristian Cellay returns from Boca Juniors and Damian Albil is back from his loan spell at San Lorenzo.

It may take him some time to rebuild morale at the club, however Russo seems like the best man for the job and I can't see him failing to improve on their dismal 13th place finish in the Clausura.

Prediction: Top half of the table

Godoy Cruz

Godoy Cruz are the provincial minnows that continue to surprise. They have developed an enjoyable attacking style, have recorded three consecutive top five finishes and have qualified to play at the continental level for only the second time in their history after last season's Copa Libertadores campaign.

The team have probably had the quietest transfer window with few big name arrivals or departures. I hope they stick with their high scoring attacking philosophy however I think they may struggle to compete on two fronts, if they progress in Copa Sudamericana their league form may suffer, however an early exit could also damage their confidence.

Prediction: Top half of the table, possibly a 4th consecutive top five finish


Independiente

Independiente are an unpredictable side, they finished 20th and last in Apertura 2010 but won Copa Sudamerica 2010, in Clausura 2011 they made significant improvements domestically but flopped out of Copa Libertadores at the group stage. During the Apertura Independiente will benefit from a bye to the quarter-finals of Copa Sudamericana as reigning champions, meaning that they will only face the distraction of a maximum of six continental games.

The club have made a number of interesting signings including Ernesto Farías from Cruzeiro, Osmar Ferreyra from Ukranian side Dnipro, Marco Pérez from Zaragoza and the relatively unknown Uruguayan defender Adrían Argachá. Making way are Andrés Silvera who joins Belgrano, Lucas Mareque to French side Lorient, Leandro Gracián to Boca Juniors and winger Federico Mancuello who will join Silvera at Belgrano.

Independiente finished 6th in the Clausura and had the third best scoring record with 30 goals. If they can tighten up the defence a bit and avoid getting too badly distracted by Copa Sudamericana they could end up as championship contenders.

Prediction: Top half of the table, championship contenders if things go well.


Lanús

In Gabriel Schürrer's first full tournament as manager Lanús put in a blistering finish to the season with an eleven game unbeaten run before a home defeat in the penultimate game against Argentinos Juniors handed Vélez Sársfield the championship.

After a massive squad restructuring during the January transfer window it is quite a surprise to see no major transfer activity at Lanús before the Apertura. Diego Braghieri joins from Rosario Central, Matías Fritzler returns from a season long loan at Hércules in Spain and Cristián Menendez returns from his loan spell at Emelec.

Prediction: One of the tournament favourites


Newell's Old Boys

Newell's had a dismal Clausura spending most of the season at the bottom of the table only to leapfrog Huracán to secure 19th place. They conceded far too many goals and only two teams scored fewer goals than the Rosario giants.

Although Newell's have cleared out a lot of "dead wood" from their over sized squad none of their new signings look particularly inspirational. Probably the most significant change is the departure of Rolando Schiavi and his replacement at centre-back by Hernán Pellerano from Almería. Uruguayan Carmelo Valencia has been brought in from Ulsan Hyundai Motors in Japan to strengthen the attack and their other attacking signings include Diego Torres from relegated Quilmes and Boca Juniors cast-off Ricardo Noir.

Prediction: 15th-20th place


Olimpo

Olimpo put in an amazing display to finish 4th in the Clausura and haul themselves out of the relegation places however they have lost several of their key players over the close-season; Nicolás Bianchi Arce to San Lorenzo, Ezequiel Maggiolo to Tigre, Martín Aguirre to River Plate, Juan Cobo to Arsenal, Marcelo Mosset to Atlético Tucumán, Roberto Brum to Argentinos Juniors and Diego Gavilán who has gone back for a third stint at Estudiantes.

Their new look midfield could feature new faces Adrián Lucero, Leonel Ríos and Ariel Rosada who look like the pick of their signings.

Prediction: A big struggle, 15th-20th place.


Racing Club

At the beginning of the Clausura Racing Club played some of the best football I've seen from them in my decade long obsession with Argentine football however they slumped badly in the back end of the season, finishing down in 15th place. Manager Miguel Ángel Russo left to take over at Estudiantes and has been replaced by Diego Simeone who is returning to the club at which he made his managerial debut back in 2006. He is the only manager in the division to have won the Primera with two different clubs, however he also played a big role in landing River Plate in their first ever bottom of the table finish the season after leading them the championship.

Racing have not made many signings but Agustín Pelletieri and Sebastian Saja look like potentially useful signings so Simeone looks to be working with virtually the same squad that played blistering football during Argentine spring but turgid dross as winter approached. Racing are an unpredictable side and Simeone is an unpredictable manager, I could imagine him leading Racing to their first championship in a decade to become only the 3rd manager to win it with three different teams (after José Yudica and Américo Gallego), but almost certainly not this season, so the club will have to give him time.

Prediction: 6th-10th place

San Lorenzo

After Ramón Diaz' second stint as San Lorenzo manager ended with a five game winless streak they brought in Omar Asad, who had worked miracles at Godoy Cruz before an unsuccessful stint with Emelec of Ecuador. He didn't manage to turn things around and they finished the Clausura in 14th after a seven game winless streak.

Asad has made a significant number of changes to the squad; Nicolás Bianche Arce comes in from Olimpo, Emmanuel Giggliotti from All Boys, Gabriel Méndez from Banfield and Berardo Romeo is back at the club after his stint at Quilmes ended in relegation.

Asad is an astute manager and he should make improvements if given the time, if results are not forthcoming the board may lose patience.

Prediction: Mid table


San Matín (SJ)

San Martín won promotion through a playoff win against a dismal Gimnasia side, despite having finished above Belgrano in Primera B Nacional, I see them as the weakest of the four promoted sides. A lot will depend on how their new signings will bed into the squad. Some of them look like potentially great signings including former Lanús player Marcos Aguirre will bring a lot of Primera División experience as will Maximiliano Bustos of Banfield. Nestor Ayala was a useful player at Tigre between 2007 & 2010 and Raul Saavedra looked a useful left-back for the other San Martín (de Tucumán) back in 2008-09, his only Primera División goal since 2005 was an absolutely blistering strike against Boca Juniors in 2009.

If the new signings work out for them, San Martín could prove me spectacularly wrong, but I think they are set to struggle badly for points and find themselves in or near the drop zone by the end of the Apertura.


Prediction: 15th-20th


Tigre

In Denis Straqualursi Tigre had the most effective striker of the 2010-11 season, they have managed to keep hold of him and have added veteran striker Ezequiel Maggiolo to the attack, an intriguing pairing that could work well together. They will need to do well as Tigre kick off the 2011-12 season with the worst points average of any of the established teams meaning that if they do not prosper they will find themselves embroiled in the relegation dogfight.

Tigre have also signed a number of other decent looking players including Emmanuel Pío from Banfield, Carlos Luna from Liga de Quiro, Walter Vílchez from Sporting Cristal and Carlos Casteglione from All Boys.

Prediction: Bottom half of the table


Unión

Unión have endured a long wait to return to the Primera División and will be striving to avoid an immediate return to the lower leagues. They have made a number of signings to strengthen the squad for the coming season bringing in Jerónimo Barrales and Enrique Bologna who both have Primera División experience with Banfield, Rodrigo Erramuspe who has some top flight experience with Lanús, Uruguayan Fabricio Núñez who was a bit part player for Godoy Cruz last season, Juan Pablo Pereyra who has top flight experience with Atlético Tucumán and Estudiantes and ex-Southampton flop Marcelo Sarmiento who has played top flight football with Talleres, Olimpo and Argentinos Juniors.

Unión already had a fairly strong squad so the fact that they have made no marquee signings doesn't bode too badly.

Prediction: 10th-15th place


Vélez Sársfield

The reigning champions have lost two of their key players from last season, Ricky Alvarez has gone to Inter and Maxi Moralez has also departed for Italy to join Atalanta. The only additions to the squad are Alejandro Cabral who has returned from his loan spell at Legia Warsaw and Leandro Velázquaz who spent last season on loan at Newell's Old Boys.

Despite losing two important players, Vélez still look like the team to beat in the Argentine Primera División.

Prediction: Championship favourites



Conclusions


Velez, Boca Juniors, Independiente and Lanús as the four most likely winners. Argentinos Juniors, Godoy Cruz and Banfield are the dark horses.

Olimpo, Atlético Rafaela, San Martín and Tigre to find themselves in the relegation places by the end of the Apertura and Newell's Old Boys to have another stinker of a season.

Fecha 19 Clausura 2011 - Preview and predictions

Preview and predictions for the 19th round of games in the Clausura 2011 tournament.

Preview

Last week I correctly predicted 4 results but didn't get any exact scores. This week I am really pressed for time and the relegation situation is so complex to explain that for the final round of Clausura 2011 I'm going to have a bit of fun and just run with my gut instinct and what I would like to happen rather than doing all the usual meticulous research.

The first five games all involve teams battling to avoid relegation and kick off simultaneously on Saturday afternoon.

There are two seperate battles the most important is the fight to avoid automatic relegation and only one of three teams can avoid it by finishing in a relegation playoff position meaning that they will face a two legged tie against the 3rd placed team in Primera B Nacional (San Martín de San Juan).

Quilmes are bottom of the pile but having failed to win any of their first 9 games in the Clausura they have pulled off an extraordianry recovery to give themselves a chance of avoiding automatic relegation but they still need to beat Olimpo to have any chance of survival. Quilmes also rely on the other two teams failing to win their games. Gimnasia have a home tie against Boca Juniors, which will be the final game for legandary striker Martín Palermo, Gimnasia will survive if they win and the other two don't, they could also survive if they draw and the other two lose given their superior goal average to Huracán. Huracán face a trip to Avellaneda to face Independiente, if they win they will avoid automatic relegation whatever else happens. If they match or better the results of the others they will also survive however if they draw and Quilmes win they will finish on the same points average and face a playoff to determine which team finishes in the higher position.

There are three teams involved in the battle to avoid the last relegation playoff position which would mean a two legged tie against the 4th placed team in Primera B Nacional, Belgrano de Córdoba. As with the automatic relegation fight the three involved teams could finish level on points average. Olimpo need to beat Quilmes to have any chance of avoiding the playoff and if they do a win for River Plate against Lanús and a draw for Tigre  at Argentinos Juniors would mean that the three teams all finish level on points average and a three way playoff to determine which team finishes where.

If Tigre win, equal or better the results of the other two they will certainly survive however if they lose and the other two win they will face the playoff. If River Plate better the result of Olimpo they will survive, if both River and Olimpo draw River will survive however if they both win it will go down to a playoff.

The last game on Saturday will provide the opportunity for Godoy Cruz to secure a top three finish with a win against All Boys. If they win and Lanús don't they could secure 2nd place their best ever finish in the Primera División.

On Sunday Arsenal and Estudiantes play in the early kick-off. There has not been a draw in this fixture since 2005 so I'm going to back the stalemate.

Newell's could avoid an embarassing bottom of the table finsh if they manage to better Huracán's result in their game against Colón.

Banfield have been inconsistent for the whole of the Clausura however this is clearly better than having been consistently bad like San Lorenzo. I'd be surprised if Banfield ddn't comfortably beat San Lorenzo in their last game of the season.

The last game of the championship will be the champoins Vélez against Racing. It should be an entertaining game Vélez will want to put on a good show in front of their supporters and if Racing bother to turn up and play football like they occasionally have in the Clausura it could be a cracking game.

Predictions

As the results come in I will fill in the actual scores and colour code the predicted scores, green for exact score, yellow for correct result and red for completely wrong. Each green score gets three points, each yellow score gets one point and red scores get nothing. If you fancy playing along fill out your predictions in the comments below to see if you can beat mine.

18-06-11 Prediction
Argentinos Juniors 1-1 Tigre 1-0
Gimnasia y Esgrima (LP) 2-2Boca Juniors 1-1
Quilmes 0-1 Olimpo 2-0
River Plate 1-2 Lanús 1-1
Independiente 5-1 Huracán 2-0
Godoy Cruz 1-0 All Boys 3-1
19-06-11
Arsenal 1-0 Estudiantes 0-0
Newell's Old Boys 1-0 Colón 1-1
Banfield 1-1 San Lorenzo 2-0
Vélez Sársfield 2-1 Racing Club 3-2

Score:4/10

Fecha 18 Clausura 2011 - Preview and predictions

Preview and predictions for the 18th round of games in the Clausura 2011 tournament.

Preview

Last week I broke my long run of not predicting any correct scores with a remarkable 5 correct scores out of 9 games, with another correct result my score of 16 points is by far my best attempt yet.


The first game of the round will be bottom of the table Newell's Old Boys visit to Olimpo. The outcome could have huge consequences in the relegation table, especially if Olimpo manage to win. The stats seem to support the case for a home win with Newell's having only won 1 of their last 18 away games in all competitions and their record in Bahía Blanca is nothing to write home about either having recorded just one victory in their six previous attempts.


The first of Saturday's games features the team with the worst home record in the division facing the team with the 3rd worst away record. Arsenal have only won one of their 8 previous Primera División games against Colón in Santa Fe but Colón have only managed one win and one draw in their last 8 home games. I have a gut feeling that Colón's legendary striker Esteban Fuertes to bag the decisive goal in this game.


The next game is the decisive encounter for Quilmes, without an away win against San Lorenzo they will be relegated from the Primera División. Although Quilmes have lost their last 2 away games the omens are actually quite good for the visitors; San Lorenzo have not won in four games and Quilmes have a surprisingly good recent record at "el nuevo gasométro" having won 2 of their last 4 Primera División games there. It seems foolish to back a side that are so close to relegation but I just feel that they have everything to play for and their manager Ricardo Caruso Lombardi has instilled some discipline in the side while San Lorenzo are in turmoil and have nothing to play for apart from a mid-table finish. I imagine that a late winner for Quilmes is on the cards.


The next game will also have implications for the relegation zone. All Boys could already be safe from relegation if Olimpo fail to win their game but assuming that they don't All Boys will still need another point to secure their survival. their visitors Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata are stuck in the automatic relegation places  a single point behind Huracán. A draw in this game could actually suit both sides assuming that Huracán don't get anything from their game against the league leaders later in the weekend.


The last game on Saturday features Tigre and Independiente, two sides that still face the possibility of finishing in the relegation playoff positions. A draw for visitors Independiente would secure their safety and they have a good record in Victoria having won two of their three Primera División games there since Tigre's return to the top flight in 2007. Neither of these sides have had problems scoring goals however they find themselves in mid-table positions due to their often shambolic defending. I fancy this one to be a high scoring game.


The early kick-off on Sunday features relegation threatened Huracán and league leaders Vélez Sársfield. It is remarkable to think that these two teams played an incredible final game title decider less than two years ago which Vélez won courtesy of a highly dubious goal. Since then Vélez have remained one of the strongest sides in the Primera División while Huracán have struggled badly failing to average a point a game since that dramatic game in July 2009. I can only see one winner in this encounter and the only question for Huracán is whether Javier Cámpora can find a goal to improve his chances of finishing as the league's top scorer.


Last time Estudiantes played River Plate they humped them 0-4 at El Monumental on their way to winning the Apertura 2010 championship. That game seems a long time ago now, especially as Estudiantes have only won 1 of their last 14 games and have not experienced a win at home since March. River Plate are without a win in five games and have not scored more than one away goal since a 1-4 win at Lanús back in 2010 11 games ago and they have not won away against Estudiantes since an astonishing 0-6 result back in 2002. River could be starting this game in the relegation zone depending on whether Olimpo had managed to beat bottom of the table Newell's on Friday. Both sides have struggled to score goals in recent months so I fancy this one to be a low scoring game.


Lanús will almost certainly need to win their game against Argentinos Juniors in order to keep their championship hopes alive. This fixture has provided a couple of cracking games in the last few years, the last time it was played Argentinos recorded an astonishing 3-6 away win to avenge their 4-2 defeat the time before. I reckon there is no way they are going to record a hat-trick of high scoring games, especially given that Argentinos Juniors games have featured the fewest goals so far in the Clausura tournament with only 24 goals (for & against) in their 17 games.


Last time Banfield visited the Bombonera to play Boca Juniors they came away with a 2-3 win however their manager in that game; Julio Cesár Falcioni is now the Boca Juniors boss and he has really begun to turn things around after their poor start to the season. Boca have become one of the league's form teams with a run of 8 games without defeat ans their veteran striker Martín Palermo has bagged 6 goals in his last 7 games prompting the Boca faithful to beg him not to retire at the end of the season, but as things stand this could be his last competitive home game for the club. Banfield Have been one of the most inconsistent sides in the Clausura having experienced 3 runs of 4 games or more without a win so far but they have won both of their previous games.


The last game of the round on Monday night features two of the leagues most entertaining sides. The hosts Racing Club have played some quality football in the Clausura but have also been the most inconsistent side since their promising start to the season imploded in unexpected defeats and training ground bust-ups. In all probability their visitors Godoy Cruz will already be out of the title race by the time they take to the field, they have been one of the best away teams in the league and could close in on their second ever 3rd place finish with a decent result in this game however they have not won any of their four previous Primera División games against Racing at "el cilindro".


Predictions

As the results come in I will fill in the actual scores and colour code the predicted scores, green for exact score, yellow for correct result and red for completely wrong. Each green score gets three points, each yellow score gets one point and red scores get nothing. If you fancy playing along fill out your predictions in the comments below to see if you can beat mine.

10-06-11 Prediction
Olimpo 1-1 Newell's Old Boys 2-0
11-06-11
Colón 0-1Arsenal 1-0
San Lorenzo 0-2 Quilmes 2-3
All Boys 1-0 Gimnasia y Esgrima (LP) 1-1
Tigre 0-0 Independiente 2-2
12-06-11
Huracán 0-2 Vélez Sársfield 0-4
Estudiantes 1-1 River Plate 0-0
Lanús 0-1 Argentinos Juniors 1-0
Boca Juniors 1-1 Banfield 2-0
13-06-11
Racing Club 3-2 Godoy Cruz 1-1

Score:4 Points

Fecha 17 Clausura 2011 - Preview and predictions

Preview and predictions for the 17th round of games in the Clausura 2011 tournament.

Preview

Last week I got 3/10 results correct but still failed to predict any correct scorelines.


Olimpo will need to win at Arsenal to avoid slipping back into the relegation places but they have never even scored a goal there in their 5 previous Primera División games there. Arsenal are also precariously close to the relegation places and a loss here could concievably leave them in the last relegation place by the end of the weekend.

All Boys have only lost 1 of their previous 9 games however they face a tough tie away at Banfield on Saturday. Banfield are one of the most inconsistent sides in the Clausura but they are capable of beating any side on their day.

Newell's Old Boys are off the bottom of the table for the first time since fecha 9 after Huracán took over at the bottom of the pile. Although they have not managed a home win against San Lorenzo since 2007 I still fancy Newell's to win this tie.

With only three games of the season remaining Quilmes need to win at least 2 of their remaining games to have the slightest chance of avoiding automatic relegation. On Sunday they face a Boca Juniors side that have recovered impressively from their poor start to the season with a seven game unbeaten run in which Martín Palermo has bagged six goals. Quilmes' home record against Boca is pretty poor, they have only won 1 of their last 11 in this fixture.

Gimnasia look set to face yet another relegation playoff but they may still need a few more points to ensure that they avoid automatic relegation at the expense of Huracán. This weekend they face Racing Club who have gradually slipped down the table after an impressive start to the season. Ever since 1998 this fixture has been evenly balanced with 5 wins apieca and 3 draws. Both sides have plenty of motivation, Gimnasia's provided by their fight to avoid automatic relegation and Racing Club are still hoping to qualify for Copa Sudamericana 2011.

Huracán are back in the automatic relegation places after Estudiantes completed their thrashing in midweek and they face a visit from a Tigre side that have clambered away from the relegation zone thanks to only one defeat in their previous seven games. Huracán have lost seven consecutive games and have not experienced victory since a 2-0 win against relegation rivals Gimnasia way back in fecha 7.

River Plate start the weekend in the relegation zone but they should be looking forward to the visit of a Colón side that have lost 4 of their last 5 games however River's recent home record against Colón does not make inspirational reading having drawn 3 and lost 1 in the last 4 times this fixture has been played.

Independiente have made good progress since finishing bottom of the Apertura and look certain to record a decent mid-table finish at the worst. On Monday evening they host Lanús who need the win in order to pile the pressure on title rivals Vélez and Godoy Cruz by establishing a two point lead at the top. Lanús are the form team in the Cluasura having a ten game unbeaten run however Independiente are also enjoying a decent run having won 3 in a row and avoided defeat in their last 6.

Estudiantes won their first game in 13 attempts in midweek however they have not experienced victory in ""la paternal" since 2004. Argentinos Juniors have won their last 3 league games against Estudiantes and need a win in this fixture in order to keep up their chase for a Copa Sudamericana berth.

The last game of the fecha is also the most important with league leaders Vélez Sársfield hosting third placed Godoy Cruz. Vélez have won all of their three previous Primera División games against Godoy Cruz without conceding a single goal but this season Godoy Cruz are one of the best away sides in the league having only lost 1 of their 8 away games so far.

Predictions

As the results come in I will fill in the actual scores and colour code the predicted scores, green for exact score, yellow for correct result and red for completely wrong. Each green score gets three points, each yellow score gets one point and red scores get nothing. If you fancy playing along fill out your predictions in the comments below to see if you can beat mine.

03-06-11 Prediction
Arsenal 2-0 Olimpo 1-2
04-06-11
Banfield 3-1 All Boys 1-0
Newell's Old Boys suspended San Lorenzo 1-0
05-06-11
Quilmes 2-2 Boca Juniors 2-2
Gimnasia y Esgrima (LP) 0-0 Racing Club 0-0
Huracán 3-2 Tigre 2-3
River Plate 1-1 Colón 1-0
06-06-11
Independiente 1-2 Lanús 1-2
Argentinos Juniors 0-0Estudiantes 0-0
Vélez Sársfield 2-0 Godoy Cruz 2-0

Score: 16 points (best score ever!)

Fecha 16 Clausura 2011 - Preview and predictions

Preview and predictions for the 16th round of games in the Clausura 2011 tournament.

Preview

Last week I got a half decent 4/9 correct results although I continued my long run of failing to predict a correct scoreline.


There are no Friday night fixtures this weekend so the first game featuring Colón and Argentinos Juniors kicks off on Saturday afternoon. This fixture has provided more than five goals in four of the last seven times it has been played but I'm going for the 0-0 bore draw given Colón's poor home form and the low scoring nature of most of Argentinos Juniors games so far in the Clausura.

San Lorenzo have won their last three home games against Arsenal, who have a poor away record having only won one of their last12 away games. A defeat for Arsenal would leave them far too close to the Primera División relegation places for comfort.

Quilmes face a tough trip to fellow Primera División new boys All Boys. A win for All Boys would ensure that they finish outside the automatic relegation places while a win for Quilmes would keep their fairytale Primera División survival hopes alive. Even though All Boys are in a decent run of form I am backing Quilmes to win this one as I really want the fairytale to continue for them.

Racing Club and Banfield are two of the most inconsistent sides in the Clausura. Banfield have fallen into the bottom half of the table after a run of four games without a win. Racing have won three and lost three in their last six games. This is a tough one to call but I'm going to go for a home win.

Estudiantes missed out on their first win in 12 games after the opposition Huracán fans got their game suspended last weekend. Their agonising wait for a win dates back to March but I fancy them to get one against Independiente, who despite a few wins this year are still notoriously poor on the road.

Boca Juniors are aiming to secure their first top half of the table finish since Clausura 2009 and a win against bottom of the table Newell's Old Boys would help them in that quest. Newell's have only won 1 of their last 17 away games and Boca have come into a fine run of form having remained unbeaten and picked up 12 points from their last six games.

Vélez Sársfield suffered defeat in their Copa Libertadores semi-final first leg against Peñarol in midweek so they will hope to bounce back with an away win against relegation threatened Tigre where they have won on all three of their recent visits.

The last game on Sunday is the biggest game of the weekend. Olimpo and River Plate are embroiled in the race to avoid finishing in the Primera División relegation playoff places and anything but an away win for River would leave them stuck inthe last relegation spot with only three games remaining. Olimpo have only lost 1 of their last 7 games and climbed out of the relegation zone last weekend with their surprise 0-1 away win at Argentinos Juniors. By round 9 of the Cluasura River Plate looked to be cruising to safety but a run of only 1 win in their last 6 games has left them in serious danger of experiencing their first ever relegation from the Primera División. the last time these two sides met in Bahía Blanca Olimpo ran out 4-0 winners but ended up getting relegated. I don't fancy a repeat of that scoreline however recent form suggests that a bet against the River Plate win is the right way to go.

On Monday night 3rd placed Lanús face Huracán who are only outside the relegation places by virtue of their fans getting their last game suspended by having a riot. Lanús are the Primera División's form team and I fancy them to win this enconter by a handsome margin especially given the fact that they haven't experienced a home defeat against Huracán since 1995.

The last game of the round features championship chasers Godoy Cruz and relegation threatened Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata. The home side have a far from convincing home record however the pressure will be on them to win and Gimnasia are one of the worst away sides in Argentina having only won 1 of their last 21 games on the road. If Godoy Cruz have any intention of winning the championship they must win this game.

Predictions

As the results come in I will fill in the actual scores and colour code the predicted scores, green for exact score, yellow for correct result and red for completely wrong. Each green score gets three points, each yellow score gets one point and red scores get nothing. If you fancy playing along fill out your predictions in the comments below to see if you can beat mine.

28-05-11 Prediction
Colón 1-2 Argentinos Juniors 0-0
San Lorenzo 1-1 Arsenal 1-0
All Boys 1-0 Quilmes 0-1
Racing Club 1-3 Banfield 2-1
29-05-11
Estudiantes 0-2 Independiente 3-2
Boca Juniors 1-0 Newell's Old Boys 2-0
Tigre 2-1 Vélez Sársfield 2-4
Olimpo 0-0 River Plate 2-2
30-05-11
Lanús 3-0 Huracán 5-0
Godoy Cruz 2-2Gimnasia y Esgrima (LP) 2-0

Score: 3 Points.

Fecha 15 Clausura 2011 - Preview and predictions

Preview and predictions for the 15th round of games in the Clausura 2011 tournament.

Preview

Last week I got a poor score of 2/10 correct results and 0/10 exact scores, my second worst effort to date. Hopefully I can return to form with this week's predictions.

The first game of the weekend kicks off on Friday night in Rosario where bottom of the table Newell's Old Boys host an All Boys side who are on the brink of securing Primera División survival. It doesn't seem like a wise bet to back Newell's in this game as they have only managed 2 wins in 14 games however they do have a historical 100% home league record against All Boys and they are running out of chances to pick up the points they need in order to avoid the embarassment of a bottom of the table finish.

The next game involves second place Godoy Cruz who face a tough looking trip to Banfield. The Mendoza outfit need a win in order to overtake leaders Vélez and their excellent away record suggests that they could get it however I get the feeling that Banfield will put up a good fight. My gut instinct says draw but most of the stats point to an away win for El Tomba so I'll say Godoy Cruz to win and we'll see what happens.

The first game on Saturday features the Primera División's form team, 3rd placed Lanús against Tigre, who are still battling to avoid finishing in one of the dreaded relegation playoff positions. This fixture has only been played three times since the 1950s in the Primera División and Lanús have had the best of it winning on both of their previous two visits to El Monumental de Victoria. This should be a cracking game as both sides still have a lot to play for.

the next game should provide an answer to the old unstoppable force vs immovable object question. The hosts Argentinos Juniors have the best defensive record in the division while visitors Olimpo have more goals than any teams but the top two with 25. Both sides need the win for a couple of reasons, both sides need 3 points to keep their faint title ambitions alive, Argentinos need the win in order to keep up their chase for a Copa Sudamericana 2012 qualification place and Olimpo need the win in order to clamber out of the Primera Division relegation zone.

The next game features two sides trapped in terrible runs of form, defending champions Estudiantes have now gon 11 games without a win while hosts Huracán have plummeted into the automatic relegation zone after 5 consecutive defeats and only 1 point from their last 7 games. The only bright spot for Huracán has been the goalscoring form of their new striker Javier Cámpora but they will not want to be reminded that the last time he played Argentine domestic football he finished the Apertura 2005 season as top scorer for a Tiro Federal side that ended up getting relegated at the end of the season. I fancy Estudiantes to break their winless run with a convincing win especially since they have only lost one of their last 8 league visits to Parque Patricios.

The last game on Saturday features Independiente and Colón. The hosts have recovered well from their pathetic bottom of the table finish in the Apertura and after a 4 game unbeaten run they look like they could potentially finish the Clausura in a comfortable mid-table position. Colón lost their last away game against Tigre but recovered with a 3-0 home demolition of Huracán in fecha 14. I fancy Colón to get one over on former manger Antonio Mohamed who deserted them for the Independiente job midway through the Apertura 2010 tournament.

Sunday kicks off with a do-or-die game for Quilmes, if they fail to win against the division's most inconsistent side; Racing Club their chances of avoiding automatic relegation will end up relying on a highly improbable run of results and their fate will fall into the hands of the teams above them. Occupying 5th position gives Racing the boasting rights as the highest placed team amongst the so-called big five however defeat would allow all of the other so-called-big-five to overtake them should they manage to win themselves.

Championship leaders Velez should cruise to a comfortable win against relegation threatened Gimnasia in the next game but the have been prone to the occasional slipup, most notably a home defeat against relegation threatened Quilmes in fecha 11.

After only one win in their last five games River Plate are in danger of falling back into the relegation places without a win against San Lorenzo. They have a strong home record against Los Cuervos having won four of their last five home league games in this fixture however all River fans will have painful memories of their embarrasing defeat in Copa Libertadores 2008 where they let a comfortable two goal lead slip away while playing against a San Lorenzo team that had been reduced to nine players.

I fancy Boca Juniors to win the last game of the weekend at Arsenal, a gut feeling. I may give some more detail and statistical analysis later. As it is I'm going out now so it'll have to wait.

Predictions

As the results come in I will fill in the actual scores and colour code the predicted scores, green for exact score, yellow for correct result and red for completely wrong. Each green score gets three points, each yellow score gets one point and red scores get nothing. If you fancy playing along fill out your predictions in the comments below to see if you can beat mine.

20-05-11 Prediction
Newell's Old Boys 1-0 All Boys 2-0
Banfield 1-1Godoy Cruz 2-3
21-05-11
Tigre 0-3 Lanús 1-2
Argentinos Juniors 0-1 Olimpo 1-0
Huracán Suspended/ 0-3 Estudiantes 1-4
Independiente 3-1 Colón 0-1
22-05-11
Quilmes 2-0 Racing Club 2-1
Vélez Sársfield 2-0 Gimnais y Esgrima (LP) 3-0
River Plate 1-1 San Lorenzo 2-1
Arsenal 2-2 Boca Juniors 0-2

Score: 5 points (after the completion of the suspended Huracán-Estudiantes game

Fecha 14 Clausura 2011 - Preview and predictions

Preview and predictions for the 14th round of games in the Clausura 2011 tournament.

Preview

Last week I got a poor score of 3/10 correct results and 0/10 exact scores.

In the first game of the weekend struggling Huracán face a trip to Santa Fe to play against Colón. The visitors are without a win in six games, slipping perilously close to the automatic relegation zone and have not beaten Colón in Santa Fe since a 2-4 win back in 2002. Colón have the worst home record in the division having only picked up one win and one draw in seven games.

Quilmes failed to win last weekend but they are still the league's form team over the last four games with 10 points. On Friday night they face Godoy Cruz in Mendoza province. The home team have suffered a number of slip-ups in home games this year but the only other time this fixture has been played in the Primera División they ran out comfortable 3-0 winners back in 2007.

There was no shame in Banfield's late defeat to runaway league leaders last weekend but they will need to get something from their trip to La Plata to play Gimnasia in order to avoid three consecutive defeats. Banfield have a brilliant recent record at El Bosque having kept clean sheets in all of their last six league games there since their last defeat back in 2003.

San Lorenzo have recovered from the departure of manager Ramón Diaz with a win and a draw under the caretaker team, this weekend they host Argentinos Juniors who lost 0-2 last weekend but still have the best defensive record in the division (7 goals conceded in 13 games).

All Boys must be on a high after their first win at El Monumental since 1973 moved them well clear of the relegation zone although they are still the league's lowest scoring side with only 10 goals in 13 games. This weekend they host Arsenal who experienced their first home defeat in 9 games last weekend and their first away win in 11 games the weekend before.

Racing Club are probably the division's most inconsistant side but they should be able to bag a home win against bottom of the table Newell's Old Boys.

Estudiantes are trapped in their worst run of form in years having failed to win any of their last 10 games and not even scored a goal in their last five games. Their visitors Tigre have clambered away from the drop zone with 8 points in their last four games having scored nine goals in the process. All the stats point to a Tigre win however the last time they beat Estudiantes in La Plata was back in 1941. I'll be bold and go for the away win although I get the feeling that I'm going to regret not saying draw.

Only one win for River Plate in their last four games combined with good results for the teams around them have left them perilously close to the relegation zone again. They are under a huge amount of pressure and their next game is the most famous derby in South American football the superclásico against Boca Juniors on Sunday. After a pathetic start to the Clausura Boca have come into form and are rising up the table, they have only lost 1 of their last 7 games and iconic striker Martín Palermo is back in goalscoring form with 3 in his last 3 appearances.

Olimpo are in 3rd place in the table but still find themselves in the relegation places thanks to the oddities of the Argentine promedios relegation system. This weekend they host Independiente who have not won in their last four matches. A win would certainly lift Olimpo away from from the relegation places given that 3 points are worth 0.0789 points to them but only 0.0263 to the established teams around them.

Lanús are unbeaten in their last 7 matches but this weekend they face a visit from runaway league leaders Vélez Sársfield who have won their last five games and are unbeaten in their last 7 away games.

Predictions

As the results come in I will fill in the actual scores and colour code the predicted scores, green for exact score, yellow for correct result and red for completely wrong. Each green score gets three points, each yellow score gets one point and red scores get nothing. If you fancy playing along fill out your predictions in the comments below to see if you can beat mine.

13-05-11 Prediction
Godoy Cruz 2-0 Quilmes 2-3
14-05-11
Gimnasia y Esgrima (LP) 2-0Banfield 0-1
San Lorenzo 1-2 Argentinos Juniors 0-0
All Boys 1-0 Arsenal 0-0
Colón 3-0 Huracán 2-0
Racing Club 3-0 Newell's Old Boys 4-1
15-05-11
Estudiantes 2-2 Tigre 0-1
Boca Juniors 2-0 River Plate 2-2
Olimpo 1-2 Independiente 4-2
Lanús 3-2 Vélez Sársfield 1-1

Score: 2 Points, another rubbish effort. A monkey pulling random balls out of a bag would probably have done better.