Preview and predictions for the 16th round of games in the Clausura 2011 tournament.
Preview
Last week I got a half decent 4/9 correct results although I continued my long run of failing to predict a correct scoreline.
There are no Friday night fixtures this weekend so the first game featuring Colón and Argentinos Juniors kicks off on Saturday afternoon. This fixture has provided more than five goals in four of the last seven times it has been played but I'm going for the 0-0 bore draw given Colón's poor home form and the low scoring nature of most of Argentinos Juniors games so far in the Clausura.
San Lorenzo have won their last three home games against Arsenal, who have a poor away record having only won one of their last12 away games. A defeat for Arsenal would leave them far too close to the Primera División relegation places for comfort.
Quilmes face a tough trip to fellow Primera División new boys All Boys. A win for All Boys would ensure that they finish outside the automatic relegation places while a win for Quilmes would keep their fairytale Primera División survival hopes alive. Even though All Boys are in a decent run of form I am backing Quilmes to win this one as I really want the fairytale to continue for them.
Racing Club and Banfield are two of the most inconsistent sides in the Clausura. Banfield have fallen into the bottom half of the table after a run of four games without a win. Racing have won three and lost three in their last six games. This is a tough one to call but I'm going to go for a home win.
Estudiantes missed out on their first win in 12 games after the opposition Huracán fans got their game suspended last weekend. Their agonising wait for a win dates back to March but I fancy them to get one against Independiente, who despite a few wins this year are still notoriously poor on the road.
Boca Juniors are aiming to secure their first top half of the table finish since Clausura 2009 and a win against bottom of the table Newell's Old Boys would help them in that quest. Newell's have only won 1 of their last 17 away games and Boca have come into a fine run of form having remained unbeaten and picked up 12 points from their last six games.
Vélez Sársfield suffered defeat in their Copa Libertadores semi-final first leg against Peñarol in midweek so they will hope to bounce back with an away win against relegation threatened Tigre where they have won on all three of their recent visits.
The last game on Sunday is the biggest game of the weekend. Olimpo and River Plate are embroiled in the race to avoid finishing in the Primera División relegation playoff places and anything but an away win for River would leave them stuck inthe last relegation spot with only three games remaining. Olimpo have only lost 1 of their last 7 games and climbed out of the relegation zone last weekend with their surprise 0-1 away win at Argentinos Juniors. By round 9 of the Cluasura River Plate looked to be cruising to safety but a run of only 1 win in their last 6 games has left them in serious danger of experiencing their first ever relegation from the Primera División. the last time these two sides met in Bahía Blanca Olimpo ran out 4-0 winners but ended up getting relegated. I don't fancy a repeat of that scoreline however recent form suggests that a bet against the River Plate win is the right way to go.
On Monday night 3rd placed Lanús face Huracán who are only outside the relegation places by virtue of their fans getting their last game suspended by having a riot. Lanús are the Primera División's form team and I fancy them to win this enconter by a handsome margin especially given the fact that they haven't experienced a home defeat against Huracán since 1995.
The last game of the round features championship chasers Godoy Cruz and relegation threatened Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata. The home side have a far from convincing home record however the pressure will be on them to win and Gimnasia are one of the worst away sides in Argentina having only won 1 of their last 21 games on the road. If Godoy Cruz have any intention of winning the championship they must win this game.
Predictions
As the results come in I will fill in the actual scores and colour code the predicted scores, green for exact score, yellow for correct result and red for completely wrong. Each green score gets three points, each yellow score gets one point and red scores get nothing. If you fancy playing along fill out your predictions in the comments below to see if you can beat mine.
| 28-05-11 | Prediction | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Colón | 1-2 | Argentinos Juniors | 0-0 |
| San Lorenzo | 1-1 | Arsenal | 1-0 |
| All Boys | 1-0 | Quilmes | 0-1 |
| Racing Club | 1-3 | Banfield | 2-1 |
| 29-05-11 | |||
| Estudiantes | 0-2 | Independiente | 3-2 |
| Boca Juniors | 1-0 | Newell's Old Boys | 2-0 |
| Tigre | 2-1 | Vélez Sársfield | 2-4 |
| Olimpo | 0-0 | River Plate | 2-2 |
| 30-05-11 | |||
| Lanús | 3-0 | Huracán | 5-0 |
| Godoy Cruz | 2-2 | Gimnasia y Esgrima (LP) | 2-0 |
Score: 3 Points.
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