Preview and predictions for the eleventh round of games in the Clausura 2011 tournament.
Preview
After last Sunday's bumper crop of correctly predicted scores, based more on gut instinct than comprehensive statistical analysis I'm going to follow my instincts again but not without a discussion of the form and stats for those of you that don't put your faith in my guesswork.
The first game of the weekend kicks off on Saturday afternoon with bottom of the table Newell's Old Boys hosting Banfield. Despite eight games without a win Newell's can gain some confidence from the fact that they have not lost a home game against Banfield since a 0-3 defeat back in Clausura 2002.
Independiente will be hoping to make amends for their loss in the Avellaneda derby with a win against a resurgent All Boys side who have won two consecutive relegation six-pointers. Independiente have never lost a home league game against All Boys and last weekend's Racing Club loss was Independiente's only defeat in their last eight games.
Estudiantes are suffering one of their worst runs of form in years having gone 5 games without a win which makes the visit of the division's most successful away side a tricky prospect. Colón have picked up ten of their fourteen points so far on the road. Estudiantes have lost their home invincibility from the Apertura where they won all nine of their home games, they have only won one of their last four home league games and their last home game was a humiliating 0-3 defeat against Cruzeiro in Copa Libertadores.
League leaders Vélez Sársfield should be able to record a home win against a Quilmes side that have only won once at Vélez since they won their only league championship back in 1978 and lie bottom of the promedios relegation table. Vélez are unbeaten in nine games and have not lost a league game in eight encounters since their surprise home defeat by All Boys in the 2nd round.
In the late kick off River Plate face a tough tie against a Godoy Cruz side that have won two of the three league visits to El Monumental in their history. River Plate are second in the table and unbeaten in five games while Godoy Cruz are fifth and have only lost one of their last seven away league games.
On Sunday Arsenal host Gimnasia y Esgrima in a must win game for both sides. Arsenal have not won in six games and Gimnaisa have gone four games without a win and still occupy one of the automatic relegation places. Gimnasia have only ever won one of their eight league games at El Viaducto back in Apertura 2005.
In the next game Tigre host San Lorenzo with both sides are trapped in runs of poor form. Tigre have only won one of their last five games and San Lorenzo have fallen away from the championship chase with a run of four games without a victory. Both sides have undoubted quality on their day and in Danis Straqualursi Tigre have the league's most effective striker. Last time Tigre won a home league game against San Lorenzo was way back in 1958.
Huracán will fancy their chances against the weakest Boca Juniors defence in decades, especially as they have the second most effective striker in the tournament in Javier Cámpora but the last time they won a home game against Boca was back in 1994. Since then they have suffered five defeats and only managed four draws. Their last two home games against Boca ended in 0-0 draws but another is unlikely given the defensive weakness of both sides.
Argentinos Juniors lost their unbeaten record last weekend and were eliminated from Copa Libertadores in midweek. In the late kickoff on Sunday they face Racing Club. All six of Argentinos home games against Racing since they returned to the Primera División have ended up in wins with the losing side failing to score. Five for the home side and a single Racing Club win back in August 2008. Racing need to win to keep their faint tile hopes alive and Argentinos need the win to break their poor run of form and get themselves back in the running for a Copa Sudamericana place.
In the last game of the round Lanús host Olimpo on Monday night and will be hoping to avenge the 4-0 thrashing they took in the reverse fixture. Olimpo have won four out of their last five away games and scored three goals in their only defeat against Racing Club. Lanús have won all five of their home games against Olimpo in the Primera División.
Predictions
As the results come in I will fill in the actual scores and colour code the predicted scores, green for exact score, yellow for correct result and red for completely wrong. Each green score gets three points, each yellow score gets one point and red scores get nothing. If you fancy playing along fill out your predictions in the comments below to see if you can beat mine.
| 23-04-11 | Prediction | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Newell's Old Boys | 0-1 | Banfield | 1-1 |
| Independiente | 2-2 | All Boys | 2-1 |
| Estudiantes | 0-2 | Colón | 0-0 |
| Vélez Sársfield | 2-3 | Quilmes | 2-0 |
| River Plate | 1-2 | Godoy Cruz | 1-0 |
| 24-04-11 | |||
| Arsenal | 1-1 | Gimnasia y Esgrima (LP) | 0-0 |
| Tigre | 1-0 | San Lorenzo | 2-2 |
| Huracán | 0-3 | Boca Juniors | 2-1 |
| Argentinos Juniors | 2-1 | Racing Club | 0-1 |
| 25-04-11 | |||
| Lanús | 1-1 | Olimpo | 2-1 |
Score: 1 Point. Terrible effort and my worst points tally ever.
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